The Purple Rox

Rox Talk - Holding the Rope

2012-01-26T09:09:00.000-08:00

Troy Renck, in his Sunday wrap up, had an interesting article about our rotation for the upcoming year. He indicated that an ex-player suggested that a better way to evaluate our starting pitching is whether they could outlast their opponents. Interesting concept and of course without any numbers I was curious whether it made any sense. I looked at the last three years of data (2009 - 2011). I compared our starter's innings pitched to their opponents and determined if our pitcher out pitched (OP), tied (T), or under pitched (UP). Then for each of these three conditions I determined the team's overall record. See table below. For instance in 2009, Rox out pitched their opponents 86 times compared to 22 ties and 54 under pitch. In those 86 games that the Rox out pitched their opponents their record was 69 - 17.

And wow what a conclusion. I thought Troy (and his ex-player) was onto something but the numbers suggest a whole lot more. For the three years I evalutated, in 486 games the Rox starters outlasted their opponent pitchers 227 times, tied with them 59 times, and were out pitched 200 times. The startling part is the record. When our starters win the battle the team wins a whooping 3 out 4 times. That is a whole lot bigger than I would have imagined.

Since I had the data, I was curious what the win percentage was when a pitcher out duels his opponent by the number of outs difference. So for instance if our pitcher went 7 innings and his opponent went 5.2 innings that means our pitcher was a +4 and the graph below shows that pitching 4 more outs gives your team a winning percentage of around 0.800. Outlasting by about 9 outs or 3 innings guarantees a close to 90% chance of winning the game.

Rox Talk - Fan Fest

2012-01-25T20:15:00.000-08:00

Fan Fest

First, as much as I moan and groan about the Rockies, they really do a fantastic job and this year's Fan Fest highlighted all that makes being a Rox fan worthwhile. I missed last year's event so I was really excited about this year. I didn't really know what to expect and I was somewhat confused by the ticketing process as you had to sign up for specific times but you couldn't sign up for everything in certain blocks. Hard to explain but getting the tickets was the hardest part and my only complaint.

As I have two kids I went for the autographs. I bought two mint baseball (they cost $17.99! who knew?) and told the kids to have at it. As soon as we got to the club level four rookies greeted us including Tyler Anderson, Delta Cleary, Tyler Matzek, and Tim Wheeler. The entire lower and upper clubhouse levels were open with things going on everywhere. I had signed up for the first autograph session and while they kept these sessions hush, hush, we ended with autographs from Tulo and Tommy Field. Not for sure I like the Tulo haircut, come on where is the mullet?

Buzz Cut Tulo

Next up was the Executive Board. Again after last's week ripping of management I thought it would be only fair to hear what they had to say. And again instead of shaking my head in disgust, I find that the Rox have some good people in place. O'Dowd was asked questions about fly ball pitchers and second base and answered them with not only baseball mantras but also in some sabermetric terms indicating that he knows a lot more than what I gave him credit for. His assistance GM is also well spoken and it would be nice to keep him around too (I believe he interviewed for the Astros job...we have lost some good folks over the years). Over all I am impressed and perhaps my frustrations are the same that O'Dowd has too. Player evaluation is a lot of luck especially when you have to rely on it to build a team. During this session they also brought De La Rosa and Nicasio on stage. Both appear in good spirits and god willing will pitch this year. Amazing especially for Nicasio. One tidbit of interest was that De La Rosa indicated he had elbow pain in his last 10 starts leading to his actual injury. Fine line of knowing when to pitch and when not to when feeling pain.

Our Leaders

After the talk we did the family thing and saw the Rockies Family Feud. Cuddyer and EY Jr faced off against Colvin and Brothers. Colvin's team smoked the competition. Cuddyer reminds me of Mark Grace for some reason. While in the basement, we then visited the Rockies Clubhouse. A first for me and what a sight. Todd's space is like an apartment. Tulo is Mister Shoe and is it weird to have a Jeter plaque at your locker? CarGo has a soccer ball (Rapids anyone?).

Finally ended the day getting CarGo's and Tyler Colvin's autograph. I applaud the Rox for doing this. The rise of payrolls over the years has probably made access to players and teams difficult. Getting a chance to meet them makes them seem more real. I thank the players for taking time as you could tell they probably wanted to be somewhere else. Thanks!

In closing I love this picture and sort of miss the days of big homeruns!

And look at that NL Lineup from the All Star Game in Colorado:

Biggio, Gwynn, McGwire, Bonds, Piazza, C. Jones, Walker (in Center no less!), Weiss, and Maddux. Without steroid issue you are looking at 7 Hall of Famers in that line up.

Rox Talk - GM Thoughts Part II

2012-01-18T21:00:00.000-08:00

Seems like ages ago I criticized Dan O'Dowd for his trading of Matt Holliday. This past season I somewhat capitulated on this because of the value we got in return for Street and CarGo. Then I took a wait and see attitude about the Ubaldo trade. Now with the Seth Smith deal and the merry go round of players that have been dealt this Winter, I have to question what is the Master Plan? Death Rays anyone? I feel like my relationship with O'Dowd has fallen into some twisted high school romp when every week I'm either liking or disliking him! If there was only some consistency in what he did year to year. He's been at this for quite sometime...you'd think he would know what it takes to win here (?)

To begin this rant, I will start with saying the Rox had a solid core from 2007 - 2009. We went to playoffs twice, we were a solid contender. Some might have said we hung onto some of these pieces (i.e. Atkins and Hawpe) a little too long and didn't allow the younger players to take over. We then brought the younger players in and none of these panned out. So this Winter we got rid of these pieces, brought in older pieces, with proven track records (and possibly better chemistry), to try and bridge the gap until another set of unproven talent emerges (i.e. Arenado). Meanwhile Rox team salaries have stayed somewhat static meaning we aren't really throwing in the towel (like Florida has always done) and we tend to push for some high value free agent signing (Cuddyer). While this plan seemingly worked in 2007 - 2009, one has to wonder if this was due to luck and timing or is this a sustainable plan from year to year. I call this the "Twin" model of team building (I know not very original). At its core, its premise is solid, if and only if...young players pan out and that you dump your stars and not fall in love with them. The real Twins fell in love with their stars, signed them to long term deals and now with commitments to these players they can't bring in new talent. If your stars play like them then you are golden, if they struggle (i.e. Mauer) your season is sunk. Fortunately our Rox stars have played well, but our new talent has sucked.

The Twin model works (well fairly well for one team...the TWINS!) but I think it relies on a lot of luck and crossing fingers that all the young ones have awesome, unexpected years. The Rox have shown some pride and aren't willing to just dump salary, gather as much talent as we can, and try to pinpoint a year where we think we might be good. Although I might suggest this would be far superior then just making random free agent signings but not address what it will really take to win the NL West. Rox management seems content to win 75 - 83 games and fans seem OK with that. We aren't terrible, we aren't great, we are just a middle of the road team hoping to find a four leaf clover every 10-15 years.

My problem with O'Dowd and management is we seem to be on the fence and we don't seemingly have any identity. Some years we seem to be a low income team stockpiling young players and hoping for a few break out years and sometimes we are a mid market team with some young talent and the ability to sign a free agent or two. Either plan relies on a core group of successful young players coming up through the draft. The graphic below shows Rox success at doing this since our inception. Each dot is a player the Rox drafted in the first round. Green is a player who has made the big leagues and red is a player still in the Minors. The green dot size is based on WAR that player has produced. Not a whole lot of success especially since 2006.

I can't find the website to give credit for this graph! I will keep searching...

And this is why I conclude, again, that O'Dowd must go. If a stable of young players is needed to make your plan work and you fail miserably in six years of drafting and then you have to trade the best pitcher in franchise history to restock your failures then to me that is a leadership failure.

Of course all of this is contingent on a home town crowd that cares about winning. Wrigley Field West is just happy to have baseball, a cold beer, and one perennial All Star (Galarraga to Helton to Tulo). When will we demand and expect excellence from our front office? I bet if you ask Tulo and CarGo...they want a plan and to win!

Rox Talk - 2012 Predictions

2012-01-11T21:14:00.000-08:00

2012 Predictions

I know it is still a bit early, but for the most part, MLB rosters are set for the upcoming season. Sure there could be a surprise or two but here is my first look at what we might expect. I used the rosters established here for the NL West. In years past I have tried to establish my own prediction tools. This year I decided to get a bit more in depth. My method was to basically look at the last three years of a player's stats concentrating on plate appearances or batters faced (for a pitcher) and runs scored/allowed. I then weighted these numbers stressing more on the previous year. With this done, I then calculated an average runs per plate appearance or runs per batter's faced. With this ratio I then multiplied by what I expect is an assumed number of plate appearances for 2012 which then provided me with expected runs scored or allowed. Taking this data I then extrapolated to an average team season (6100 to 6200 plate appearances or batter's faced) to obtain each team's expected runs score and runs allowed number and then used pythagorean to predict overall record. I also did one last tweek taking this record and correlating to their previous three seasons to come up with wins. Spreadsheet is here. Results are below:

	RS	RA	Wins
D-Backs	745	613	94
Giants	664	586	92
Padres	686	667	84
Dodgers	668	644	82
Rockies	769	781	78

Thoughts:

1) Not so good for us Rox fans. Key to winning the West is pitching and frankly the Rox staff is the big unknown. My data did not include Nicasio so that might help if he is in fact on the Opening Day roster and of course we do get De la Rosa back sometime over the summer. Can we stay in contention until then?

2) Another thing that struck me is playing time. Over the last three years the only player in our starting lineup this year that has averaged 600 or more plate appearances is Cuddyer. Why is this important...see my post here. D-Backs have 2 players with 600 and two borderlines, Padres have 1 borderline, Giants have 2, and LA has 2 as well. Which team projects to be the best?

3) Mystery team above is which San Diego are we getting this year? The 2010 version with 90 wins or the 2009 and 2011 team which won 75 games. Also can this lineup really score 686 runs? versus 593, 665, and 638 over the last 3 years? Will Quentin be that big bart...they have some nice pieces but will the litter box suck them dry? Also does Volquez make them more dominant on the mound? A lot of ifs with this team...

4) Will the D-Backs be as impressive as last year? They have been up and down before with this lineup. They are a lot like the Rockies. Dominant players that if they all were in sync could really be an offensive powerhouse but who can tell. Regardless of what they do at the plate their starters are probably the most dominant on paper with Kennedy, Cahill, and Hudson. Throw in Collmenter and if these arms don't regress then they are good.

5) The Giants should rebound with their offense with Posey back in the lineup. Their pitching is once again dominant as well. Should be a D-Back/Giants fight down to the wire.

6) The Dodgers much like our Rox have a lot of young players. Two everyday players and a good one two punch on the mound but a bunch of aging (cagey?) veterans holding up the back end. They'll do OK in Dodgers stadium but what about the other parks?

I think the Dodgers and Rox will be the teams to beat in 2013 but this year will be a holding pattern for us as Rox pitching needs to grow.

Hall of Fame

This was Renck's first ballot and while I applaud is openness I think his choices are what plague the voting all around. Each of these writer's would like to say they have used some sort of statistical look at their picks but ultimately these guys are just voting rather whimsically. My biggest gripe is that I think all hometown writer's should be homers and vote for their players. Therefore Renck should have voted for EY, Castilla, and Walker. In fact the hometown writer should be their players advocate regardless of what they think. Sure Walker missed a bunch of games? Yes but was he magic on the field? Did he make you come to the ballpark? If you think CarGo is magnificent fielder, Walker was even better. His arm was awesome. Oh yeah, he could rake with the bat too. Coors Field effects - just look at his road numbers, he was good there too. Come on Renck stand up for the hometown team. In his article I did find this piece interesting though,

"I know one former player who became clinically depressed when his numbers became dwarfed because of his refusal to use PEDs. So, morally, those with positive tests are out. It might be an untenable position."

What player was this? Why do the writer's seem to be protecting so many players and yet use this cloud of suspicion to punish them when it comes to the Hall. I just have to wonder if all the writers in baseball knew who was on juice for their respective clubs and are withholding this information and because they knew Player X, Y, Z on their team was on it, then these writer's must think that other players were on it as well. Some writer just needs to go down in a blaze of glory and put this "who was on, who wasn't" argument to rest. Take a stand for once and clean up this era, don't be safe.

How bad is the battle between us SABRites and the news media. Well this argument sums up some of our frustrations...

MLB Network

The MLB Network had a stat show by Bob Costas on the other night and they indicated the Red Sox run of 2004 in the playoffs owes a lot to Diamond Minds simulations. Theo simulated millions of games agains the Oakland A's and discovered tendencies which they then used in real games. That is pretty interesting...

Rox Talk - 2012

2012-01-02T20:31:00.000-08:00

With the flip of the calendar we move on from 2011 and turn our sights to 2012. April 6 in Houston is only 93 days away. 60 days away from opening of Spring Training games. Not much time for O'Dowd to work his magic and try to find a second and third basemen. Hard to believe that this late we are still looking for infielders especially a second baseman. Third I can understand as we are simply looking for a place holder but realistically since Matsui, we haven't had a day to day position player at second.

Below are my scatter thoughts for 2012 in no particular order:

1) Which Fowler will show up for the entire season?

2) Will we have good Helton or bad Helton?

3) Can the Tulo/CarGo dynamic duo hit on all cylinders this year?

4) Will Cuddyer be worth the money?

5) Who will step up from the youth movement (GenR^2)?

6) Chacin be a number one?

7) Betancourt continues his dominant end of the year performance in 2011?

8) Will the lack of a second and third basemen hurt our chances this year?

9) Will Nicasio be back?

10) Will De la Rosa be a force or tentative in his return?

11) Can Rox stay in the hunt until de la Rosa returns?

12) Have we see the last of Smith and EY Jr?

13) How will White and Pomeranz hold up in the Sophomore campaigns?

14) Can Tracy find the right buttons to push?

15) Can we be competitive in the NL West?

16) Everyone has a chance, can Rox play with expectations finally?

17) Can Rox return to dominance at home?

18) Will Giambi show his age or keep going long?

19) Who and what will be the X-Factor this year?

Happy New Year...Go Rox!

Rox Talk - Hot Stove Update III

2011-12-12T18:33:00.000-08:00

Hard to believe we are midway through December. MLB rosters start to take shape as the Big Chips start to fall setting the market for the lower level Free Agents. Over the last few weeks the Rox have filled some gaps. Gone from the 2009 playoff team are Iannetta (to Angels), Stewart (to Cubs), and Street (to San Diego). Additions are Tyler Colvin (from Cubs), Kevin Slowey (from Twins), and some players to be named later. According to Cot's Contracts, Rox have about $52 million in obligations for 2012. They had an opening payroll of $82 million last year so Rox have some money to play with but I don't think there is a whole lot out there. Talk is about going after Cuddyer but realistically at this point looking to 2012, I don't think this team is playoff contender. Not to be negative but this team, with the hope that young players develop, could be pretty awesome in 2013. With a big three rotation of de la Rosa, Pomeranz, and Chacin, an upcoming 3B in Arenado, a catcher in Rosario, with Tulo and CarGo backing up some youngsters (?).

Hard to swallow that 2012 might be a "rebuilding" year but looking towards the 2013 free agent class there really isn't a bankable outfielder so maybe Cuddyer is a good bet. Going to take a bunch of cash to persuade him to leave Minnesota. If we can't pry Cuddyer away, I am happy with Smith. He has done whatever the Rox have asked him to do and if Tracy would just let him bat against some lefties, who knows maybe he might be more than just a platoon type player.

Some random thoughts:

1) Will it be a curse sending Street to San Diego? Or has the players in field seen enough of his stuff that they will go after him? At least I don't have to cringe anymore...

2) Where did Florida errr I mean Miami suddenly come up with the cash to even think about prying Pujols away? I realize you get a new ballpark but that is crazy money

3) Hard to believe Angels came up with a 10 year deal for Pujols...how is that going to look in 2022?

4) Best of luck to Jerry DiPoto...I would say he went all in with landing Pujols and Wilson (and Iannetta), now better pray you make the playoffs with that kind of coin...

5) I think the real steal will be whoever lands Fielder...that is a 10 year deal worth it.

The Coors Field Hangover - Debunked (Part II)?

2011-12-05T08:00:00.000-08:00

Last week I looked into whether a "hangover" effect existed after Rox returned from a road looking at both the offense and comparing this to what our pitchers (or the other offense) did. Based on standard stats like hits, walks, strikeouts, on-base percentage, slugging, and BABIP, it would seem that whatever effect might exist, it effects both offenses (and pitchers) from both dugouts and that Rox are really not being penalized by returning home to altitude. The only real visible effect was that as a homestand increases the Rox winning percentage increases although one can debate the statistical significance of the wins as homestands lasting 8 - 10 games are rare (38 times over the last 5 seasons).

Building on this data my next logical question might be is whether the length of the road trip (i.e. number of games played, not days) effects the same stats we looked at previously. One has to wonder the longer the team travels and becomes accustomed to thicker air does the return to thin air matter? In the period from 2007 - 2011 Rox returned from a road trip 59 times with a length ranging from 2 - 11 games with more than half being approximately 6 games or less. In that period they had two 11 games trips. In these 59 games, Rox won 33 games for a winning percentage of 0.559 versus a 0.576 winning percentage over those five years.

The first graph simply graphs average number of hits, walks, and strikouts versus the length of the road trip. No real significance or trends really on this data. The only data point that might raise an eyebrow is that strikeouts tend to decrease upon returning home the longer the trip is (?). Probably just small sample size...

Average number of hits, walks, and strikeout after returning from X number of road trip games

The next graph shows the percentages. Pretty consistent suggesting that road trip length really doesn't effect offense too much.

OBP, SLG, and BABIP after returning from X number of road trip games

The next graph is our offense versus our pitcher's performance against the length of the road trip. Again the data for the most part mirors one another. Our pitchers don't seem to care much about their loss of air and some bite on their pitches. Strikouts again so some unusual trends but regardless of the road trip length the team coming into Coors to face our pitchers is perhaps at a bigger disadvantage because they might only come into Denver once a year?

Offense and Pitching differences after returning from X number of road trip games

Final graph is Rox winning percentage in those games after returning. Basically just ho-hum and scattered data. Being on the road doesn't seem to matter all that much...

Winning Percentage

Final little tidbit is what do the numbers look like when a team is either returning from the East or West Coasts? Another peculiarity of the Rox is that they are the only team in the Mountain Time Zone (OK Arizona is there early in April). Anyway it seems the Rox do a whole lot better flying East. Or it could be Rox just hate California pitching and monstrous ballparks!

The Coors Field Hangover - Debunked (Part I)?

2011-11-28T08:00:00.001-08:00

Coors Field has existed for 17 years. Born in the age of steroids Coors Field has never shaken it's past, even with the advent of the humidor. According to ESPN's ball park factors, Coors Field ranked third in runs scored in 2007 with a 1.16 factor or 16% more runs scored then at an average park (behind Fenway and Wrigley); 2008 Coors was third with a 1.126 factor (behind Chase and Ballpark in Arlington); 2009 Coors was first with a 1.247 factor; again in 2010 Coors was first with a 1.364 factor; and in 2011 Coors was second with a 1.347 factor (behind Ballpark in Arlington). Clearly Coors Field is still a place where runs are not a premium! In the end, humidor or not, you can't add air and thus batted balls tend to travel 9% farther then at sea level (according to the Rox official website).

In addition to the ball traveling farther, giving the offense a boost, the pitchers have their own trouble because balls tend not to move as much in the thinner air. So ultimately a perfect storm arrives when the ball and bat meet at home plate. In the past, the Rox seemed to have the advantage when playing at Coors Field, where they have won more than 57% of their games from 1995 - 2010 versus 40% away. In 2011 the opposite seemed true as opponents took advantage and Rox only finished 38-43 at home versus 35-46 on the road. Over the years the effects of Coors Field has been debated especially in regards to a "hangover" effect that might exist when Rox return after a road trip. My question then -- is there such a thing?

In this specific installment, I am looking at the games played from 2007 - 2011 (recent). In future installments I will look at 2002 - 2006 (Gen R) and the 1995 - 2001 (pre-humidor). To begin, is there a break in period for the offense when they return? I have sorted through the Rox schedule and annotated games played since returning from a road trip. First game back is Game 1 followed by Game 2 etc. I then compiled each of the stats for "Game 1" and so forth. Comparing these compiled stats should reveal the differences between the Rox offense when they first get home and after they adjust to the intricacies of Coors Field. The graph below shows the average number of hits, walks, and strikeouts for all Game 1's (i.e. all Game 1 data during the season following a road trip) through Game 10. Averages are used due to the fact that there were 59 Game 1's versus only 8 Game 10's.

Average number of hits, walks, and strikeouts for games after returning from a road trip

While both hits and strikeouts show a very small upward trend, the differences aren't overly dramatic. What is interesting is how Game 4 and Game 8 show a decrease. Have to wonder if this isn't related to a new team coming into town and showing a different pitching philosophy (?). Besides these average values what about percentages? The graph below shows on base, slugging, and BABIP.

Percentages for games after returning from a road trip

Again nothing dramatic except for a Game 4 downturn in which slugging percentage seems to dive (this is a relative nose dive as the slugging percentage for Game 3s is 0.474 and Game 4s is 0.428 which over 50 games is about 3 bases!). One has to wonder (and perhaps conclude) that not only do the Rox have to adjust but the team coming in does as well and whatever hangover might exist it is neither advantageous to the Rox or the opposition. Although looking at the Win Loss column below it does appear Rox settle in and teams coming in later during a home stand are at a disadvantage. Do note that Games 7 - 10 only amount to 69 total games of the 399 home games played after a road trip (Home games starting the season were not counted).

Winning percentage when returning from a road trip

To further coincide with my comment about both teams having a disadvantage when coming to Denver, the graph below includes not only the offense hits, walks, strikeouts (shown in the first graph above) but also now includes what the opposition is doing in sequential games. It should be noted that the opposition's numbers are only for our pitching staff and not broken down by different team game numbers. Eerily, hits and strikeouts are fairly consistent but Rox do show some advantage in the walk department.

Rox offense versus pitching when returning from a road trip

Overall the numbers don't appear to show a "hangover" effect when Rox return from a road trip. Whatever effect exists seems to show up in both teams as they cope with the altitude. While the raw numbers don't show that the Rox get comfortable, their winning percentage, the longer the home stand lasts seems to favor some sort of positive effect.

Part II will see if the length of the road trip plays a role in the Rox offense and pitching and whether flying east or west matters...

Rox Talk - Hot Stove Updates II

2011-11-28T08:00:00.000-08:00

NL MVP Award
Just like last week here is the quick and dirty look at the NL MVP Award over the last ten years.

	Ave of Vote Pts	Sum of 1st Place	Sum of WAR
NL Central	80	146	511.9
NL East	54	64	548.5
NL West	72	142	453.0

NL Central gets a boost since the last decade has been the Age of Pujols. Here are the Top 15 vote getters over that same period.

	Sum of Vote Pts	Sum of 1st Place	Sum of WAR
Albert Pujols	3085	85	88.7
Barry Bonds	1719	114	47.4
Ryan Howard	1114	32	20.3
Lance Berkman	901	0	37.1
Prince Fielder	727	6	17.2
Ryan Braun	591	20	21.8
Joey Votto	582	31	16.6
Jimmy Rollins	409	16	20.7
Matt Holliday	406	11	23.7
Andruw Jones	402	13	24.8
Sammy Sosa	394	2	19.8
David Wright	388	0	27.3
Troy Tulowitzki	386	0	23.1
Matt Kemp	381	10	15.7
Derrek Lee	342	1	16.4

And who says the Cardinal lineup was weak last year? Cards have three players in the Top 15!

AL MVP Thoughts

First off I think it was great that a pitcher got the MVP. I think that the argument that pitcher's have their own award should eliminate them from MVP is silly. Pitchers are players too and just because they only go out there every 5th day doesn't mean they can't be every bit as valuable as an everyday player. Just because the Silver Slugger or Hank Aaron awards for the offense positions don't mean as much as the Cy Young shouldn't be held against the pitchers. Anyway my take on the every 5th day argument is this:

Forget the consecutive days argument, what about batter's faced for pitchers versus plate appearances for offensive players. Looking at Verlander and Ellsbury then Verlander faced 969 batters and Ellsbury had 732 plate appearances. Even though Verlander only pitched in 34 games he had more plate time then any of the offensive players. And in those plate appearances Verlander actually had to perform physical labor with every pitch whereas the offensive players might swing at half the pitches they see (?).

OK so maybe the 34 games is still a sticking point but what about some sort of counting method for actual "activity" when in a game. For instance Verlander was physically involved in the throwing of 3955 pitches in his 34 games. Meanwhile Ellsbury saw 2818 pitches. In addition to this he had 388 put outs in the field so there is some more "activity". He was also on base approximately 273 times (H + BB + HBP) and if the average pitches per plate appearance was around 4 (2011 Red Sox saw 25422 pitches in 6430 plate appearances) and then Ellsbury was sort of active on a base for probably another 1000 or so pitches. So an easy guestimate is that Ellsbury was "active" for about 4206 pitches (i.e. either at the plate, making a catch in the field, or getting lead or stealing while on base).

Bottom line Verlander was involved in 3955 pitches and Ellsbury was directly involved in 4206 pitches. And I don't count standing out in the field chewing seeds and watching the pitcher pitch as being an "active" participant! Therefore I think pitchers, while they might only be in 30-35 games they are "actively" more involved in that game then a position player and in the end they are just as "actively" involved when looking at the entire season of work.

Collective Bargaining Agreement

Time will tell on the new agreement. A lot of people who are a whole lot smarter think this will hurt the small market teams. This post was kind of an eye opener for me as the Rox don't appear to spend anything like a small market club. On the amateur draft they were 23rd in spending at $24.5 million (only their small market brethren, the Twins and Marlins spent less) and internationally they were 16th in spending at $1.9 million (the Rays, Reds, D-Backs, Marlins, Orioles, and Nats spent less). So while I thought Rox might be hurt by this new CBA it appears to me at least that they aren't really currently playing the small market theory of trying to win and looking at their minor league rosters one can tell!

Rox Talk - Hot Stove Update, Cy Young Too

2011-11-21T13:56:00.000-08:00

Hot Stove Update

Winter meetings have come and gone and all Rox did was sign a Los Angeles Angel cast off in Brandon Wood. A former first rounder who has the ability to play 3B, SS, and 1B and has a 0.186 batting average in 272 major league games. Hard to imagine that Wiggington will be playing for the Rox next year with Wood in the pocket and Pacheco in the fold (minor update: Wiggy got sent to Philadelphia for a PTBNL).

Players continue to flirt with the Rox but in the end I think they are just using us to get what they really want. Sizemore appears ready to re-up with the Indians. Prado still seems an option but it really makes no sense in why the Braves would let a multi-utility player go when you have an aging 3B in Chipper Jones. It seems they want a center fielder and while Rox have dangled Seth Smith, again which doesn't make sense for the Braves has they have a right fielder in Heyward. Guess it will come down to how much Rox think they need either a 2B/3B versus Dexter Fowler. Has Fowler turned a corner? Couple of stints in the minors over the last few years kind of indicates that perhaps he still doesn't get it. With him becoming arbitration eligible in 2012 and having Scott Boras as his agent maybe letting him return to his hometown for a infielder wouldn't be such a bad idea? Time will tell...

Finally while it is nice that Oswalt has shown some interest in coming to Coors, I think ultimately the Rox chance of signing him is slim and none! Again the lack of any real arms in the league and the need out there among all kinds of teams would lead me to believe that once again he will show interest but in the end sign elsewhere. Humidor baseball still hasn't connected with free agent pitchers...

Finally it seems that baseball is safe for another 5 years without interruption due to players and management coming to an agreement. Hard to believe with all the labor strife in professional athletics that MLB is suddenly the Rock of Gibraltar! Included in this was the sale of the Astros and their moving to the AL West in 2013. Each league will now have 15 teams which then forces inter league to occur every week. Also an added Wild Card will be added to each league forcing both Wild Card teams to play a one game sudden death with the winner then going on to play one the three Division Leaders.

Cy Young Results
With Clayton Kershaw winning a Cy Young that makes it the 7th time in the last 10 years that a pitcher in the NL West claimed the prize. Only Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, and Rogers Clemens have broken the mold. It should also be noted that 6 NL West pitchers have finished second. Some numbers over the last 10 years:

Maybe the fact that 3 of the better pitching parks in baseball reside in the NL West? Either way Rox offense day in and day out do face some monsters. Lucky us we get to play our oppenents 18 times a year!

Rox Talk - Hot Stove Ignites

2011-11-14T19:58:00.000-08:00

First thing - a big congrats to Tulo for winning another Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. I think as fans who see a player everyday we tend to forget that Tulo, up to this point, is potentially one of the Top 10 shortstops of all time. Certainly the greatest shortstop playing the game right now and while I am sure he is happy about the hardware I think he would have rather been playing in October. The question now is whether the Rox can find that missing something to get the team back to playoff contention. And getting us into contention is the big question Rox management has to sort through. Just has a starting point Rox are currently 25 to 1 to win the 2012 World Series.

After just two short weeks, the hot stove is heating up as we have seen the Giants rid themselves of a pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez, for Melky Cabrera. Like everyone in the league, the Giants are looking for some more offense. They scored 570 runs last year which ranked 16th in the NL. While I indicated last week I thought the Rox hadn't scored very well last year they actually were 2nd in the NL with 735. So maybe our offense sputtered a bit but perhaps I am being too hard on them. Of course looking at the graph below shows how in comparable sense (their last 18 years) that maybe we are looking at a new "dead" ball era!

Graph shows the average projected runs scored over the last 18 years with the blue being the average and the error bars being the standard deviation. Around Game 36, the Rox seemed to tanked and skimmed along as the lowest scoring offense in Rox history!

The other two big deals was Papelbon going to the Phillies and Jamey Carroll, who supposedly was on the Rox radar, signing with the Twins on a two year deal. Over at the Purple Rox, Jeff Aberle does a fantastic job laying out what the Rox might do over the off season. While his opening line is somewhat tongue in cheek, if you also follow Troy Renck he also sees how frustrating it is to be a Rox fan because it seems free agents flirt with us but at the end of the day either more money or some sexier reason exists for them to stand us up at the foothills. Why do we have such a hard time finding that free agent. From all accounts the Rox are a good clubhouse with a good amount of talent. Playing in the NL West, with no dominant teams, allows each team to be competitive and have a chance. Has the humidor worked against us? Now that we play in a more pitcher friendly park do players not even bother? I think it is reasonable to think you can build your team through the draft but eventually holes have to filled and if Rox can't fill these holes it might be another long season next year!

Oh and this in...Tulo's not the only one who gets awards...Seth Smith steps up and is the Most Average Position Player of 2011. Let's hear it for Smith!

Also check out MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential. Great new show with a new in your face take on numbers.

Rox Talk - Break Time Over

2011-11-07T18:14:00.000-08:00

My month long hiatus is over. Time to get back to the blog. My official endpoint for the season is when the Rocky Mountain SABR has had their end of the year banquet. SABR is a fantastic baseball group bringing together a lot of different baseball takes. Last night was the 14th annual version of the end of the year gathering. This year's guest speakers were Rob Neyer, SBNation, and John Thorn, MLB Historian.

Rob Neyer talked about his meandering journey to becoming a baseball writer. From a diehard Royal fan, to discovering SABR, and then finally interning with Bill James. This then launched his career into book writing and a stint at ESPN.com and finally the National Baseball Editor for SBNation. A fascinating point that Rob made that I had forgotten before the age of internet was when teams played late night games on the West Coast the morning papers normally didn't have box scores for that game and you had to wait for the night edition of the town's competing paper. Wow how times have changed with instantaneous box scores! We are spoiled by the information at our fingertips...of course this could be a curse too...

The evening's final speaker was John Thorn who was appointed the MLB official game historian. Plugging his new book, Baseball in the Garden Eden: The Secret History of the Early Game, Thorn gave a nice presentation on the misleading origin of baseball from the early 20th Century Mill Commission to the recent Commission put together by Selig this year. Fascinating talk and he even had some early Denver baseball stories recalling that the probable first profession game in Denver was in October 1888 when the Spalding All Star team arrived in town and played at the old Riverfront Park. The All Stars won 16-12 with Cap Anson having two triples. Couple of good quotes by Thorn and I paraphrase (I'm not that fast of a writer), "Cooperstown is the wrong place but a swell place" and a general quote on why baseball is the American Pastime because it "connects boys and girls with their parents" Also Thorn used the word sagacity (or acuteness of mental discernment and soundness of judgement)! As aside, to me baseball is in our DNA. It isn't the most popular or talked about sport but it flows along quietly as the unseen current in the river that is American History!

A nice night by all and now that 2011 is officially closed what can we learn from 2,429 games that were played?

1. First and foremost...if you can stay within striking distance by September you can still get to the Playoffs...Tampa and St Louis proved this.
2. If you can get into the playoffs the second season starts and all bets are off. Your 162 game record means nothing!
3. You can lose you second best pitcher and still win the World Series (no excuses Rox...)
4. Baseball is confounding! Numbers in short series really don't matter...thanks for playing Phillies, your three headed pitching monster meant nothing.
5. Good managers can make teams better (LaRussa and Gibson)

And now what can I say about our team? I have remarked about this once or twice before but this has to be the most disappointing team in Rox history. For a team that was marked to win its first division title it got nowhere. Some thoughts:

1. Rox were unlucky! Looking at their pythagorean W-L record it suggested that they were a 77-85 team...not a whole lot better but something...
2. Rox were 38-43 at home! In their history they have averaged 44-45 wins at home. Last two seasons they won 51 and 52 respectively. This season they outscored their opponents at home 439-427. Thus they were 4 wins short of what they were expected to win. Still accounting for this they were still 2-3 wins off their average.
3. Rox played well on the road winning 35 games which was their 4th highest in history and three games better than their average
4. May was just brutal. Looking at the pythagorean W-L they were pretty unlucky. September was also cruel as Rox have always had a good end of the year performance

Rox Historical vs 2011 Winning Percentage

5. Rox starting pitching took 68 losses which is about 9 losses more than historical average. Bullpen was 20-21. Historical average is about 24-24. Guess this just meant Rox starters were behind early and didn't have a lot of comebacks. Only had 5 walk off wins and 41 comeback wins.

6. Gave up 176 home runs with 101 of those coming at home.

7. Rox scored the least amount of runs in their history at 735. The inability to score runs and the lack of offense was an eye opener especially with a team of Tulo and CarGo. Kind of shows you that to win requires 9 guys! Simple graph but always good to see...you score more runs than your opponents and you tend to make the playoffs...duh

Runs Scored vs Runs Agains (2000-2011). Playoff teams in Red and Rox historical in Purple (excluding 94-95 seasons)

8. No excuses but injuries did hurt the Rox this year. Inconsistent lineups and players finding their roles not to mention no production at second and third bases.

9. Great year by Helton, Iannetta, Tulo, CarGo, and Giambi. Average years by Smith, Wiggington, and Ellis. Not so good by Fowler, Stewart, and Spilly. Rox really need some more raw power at the plate. Need to find their home mojo...teams aren't afraid of Coors and Rox really seem hesitant at home.

10. Starting pitching was just a struggle especially with U-Ball starting slow and de la Rosa injury. Chacin and Hammel showed that they are consistently inconsistent. Cook farewell tour was painful. Rogers isn't a starter. Nicasio looks to be something if he can come back. Bullpen was adequate.

11. Role and bench players are not good. Seems like the Rox have a lot of AAAA players especially in the minors and they just can't reach the conclusion that they aren't going to be everyday MLB players...

Overall Rox have something to build on. Granted they were bad but I don't think as bad as the final record showed. Of course bottom line they didn't take the next step. Next year they will have a lot of new faces and some leadership has to step up to suggest that losing 89 games isn't acceptable. Big mountain to climb is where are they going to find 17 wins next year?

Box Score Bytes - Game 162

2011-09-29T14:02:00.000-07:00

1) In a meaningless game Rox do finally win one in San Fran. It was a nice way to finish and hopefully a building block to next year

2) In other news Game 162s in other parts of the country played out like a well scripted adventure/mystery/tragedy novel. Some quotes from last night

Joe Posnanski, "I’ve written this before: I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great."

And an epic closing, "The Braves failed to score. Papelbon blew the lead. Longoria homered in the 12th. Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. Funny, if I was trying to explain baseball to someone who had never heard of it, I wouldn’t tell them about Wednesday night. No, it seems to me that Wednesday night isn’t what makes baseball great. It’s all the years you spend waiting for Wednesday night that makes baseball great."

Box Score Bytes - Game 161

2011-09-28T11:44:00.000-07:00

1) OK I realize Alex White is a work in progress at 22 but what was the value of getting him into the majors this year so that he started 7 games (pitch 36.1 innings) and get shelled to the tune of 48 hits and 12 home runs? This could needs another good year in AA and to think realistically they think he is going to be in the rotation next year...ughhhh....new slogan Tulo and the Toddlers Part II

2) Rox are 4-13 against the Giants this year. They have scored 53 runs against them...and only 10 runs in San Fran...that is just plain frightening

3) Nightmare for this game...Top of the 2nd runner's on 1st and 3rd, no one out and the next three batters strikeout...what more can you say to symbolize the season for offensive woes...and after that only one more hit the rest of the night

4) Thankfully the season is almost done and we are not Red Sox and Braves fans!

Box Score Bytes - Game 160

2011-09-27T08:45:00.000-07:00

- A series of might have beens...in some parallel universe Rox and Giants are fighting it out for the NL West title this week...

- Chacin has a nice finish to a very inconsistent year. Finishes the year at 11-14 with ERA of 3.62 and 194 innings pitched.

- Sure will be nice if Rox can resign Ellis have not have a black hole at second base to begin the 2012 campaign...now if we can find a third baseman

- Giant's pitcher Vogelsong owes some of his success to the Rox has he finished the year 4-0 against us...

- While it is a quiet end of September baseball in Colorado, I'm glad I'm not a Boston or Atlanta fan...of course on the flip side at least these two teams are in a position to fail...question then is it better to be in the playoff hunt or to get chased down in the final week?

Rox Talk - Week 26

2011-09-26T21:17:00.000-07:00

Flip Flop Fly Ball, a blog by Craig Robinson, had an entry on well-known players and what they accomplished with their first and last at bats. What about some famous Rox?

Larry Walker 1. 2B7 ------------- 4795. Backwards K
Matt Holliday 1. BB ------------- 2968. BB
Vinny Castilla 1. 4-3 -------------- 4451. 1B8
Andres Galarraga 1. 1B8 --------- 2924. 1B7
Dante Bichette 1. F9 --------------- 4351. 1B8
Eric Young 1. 2-3 ----------------- 2450. BB
Brad Hawpe 1. 1B8 ------------- 3107. 1B8

Box Score Bytes - Game 159

2011-09-26T19:15:00.000-07:00

1) 25 hits! 19 runs! Wow

2) Even Rox pitchers got into it with Millwood going deep again. 4th pitcher with 2 HRs this season in majors. 5th Rox pitcher to have a multiple HR season...still a ways to go to reach Hampton's 2001 record of 7!

3) Six Rockies had at least 3 hits, another club record

4) It was the 4th road game of 20+ hits in Rockies history; they've had 25 such games at home.

Box Score Bytes - Game 158

2011-09-25T10:37:00.000-07:00

1) Game 158 for the Rox was a baseball milestone. According to Baseball-Reference.com this was the 200,000 game played in MLB history...not exactly a milestone worthy matchup but that is baseball...

2) Bad luck Hammel? Last seven appearances he has an ERA of 1.85 but only has one win (two starts, 5 relief appearances)

3) Pacheco has has a nice quiet September...real question is when the book comes out on him will he continue his success? Unlike Stewart...

Box Score Bytes - Game 157

2011-09-24T14:08:00.000-07:00

1) Read someone's tweet last night wondering if the team was pressing or perhaps our prized prospects aren't ready for the big lights...frightening thing is that if they aren't ready, six month off season isn't going to get them there...we could be in real trouble next year

2) Why is Iannetta ripped? The guy has had a decent year. Really as a catcher you need to call a good game, hold opponents run game in check, and be serviceable at the plate. No one expects him to be the second coming of Piazza...

3) Not good when your opponent gets a hit in their first 6 at bats (first time ever in 49 year history of the Astros)

4) In other news D-Backs win the division behind batting coach Don Baylor. Good on him, it's too bad what Rox did to him last year running him out of town. I get the strong suspicion based on Lansford crappy performance that perhaps its not the coaches but the players...

5) 9 losses with 5 games to go...maybe they can strive not only to lose 14 but then tank it so they can finish in the cellar...on the brightside the D-Backs were in the cellar last year and won the division!

Box Score Bytes - Game 156

2011-09-23T12:08:00.000-07:00

1) Corrigan made a comment tonight indicating he thought our hurlers were allowing their counterparts to reach base a lot this year (includes hits, walks, HBP, and reach on error). This is as good as any other reason for Rox failures this year but sadly numbers don't seem to be that conclusive although the percentage of those pitchers reaching base and scoring is certainly up this year. Thing is everyone is scoring on the Rox!

Year	PA	Reached	R	HR
2011	362	75	27	2
2010	348	58	10	0
2009	344	61	15	0
2008	367	72	23	0
2007	337	63	18	1
2006	360	63	18	0
2005	384	71	20	0
2004	382	74	38	2
2003	371	78	28	4
2002	381	76	29	2
Average	364	69	23	1

2) Kouzmanoff finally gets his first round tripper...kind of surprising he didn't get one at Coors...oh yeah our offense doesn't exist at home...

3) Another struggling start for White who is this Generations (if we aren't Gen R anymore what are we with this group?) Francis or Cook. Just what we need is another nibbler who can't overpower any one. Oh where are you power pitchers? That's right in Cleveland!

4) By the way this could be touted as the worst series in the history of baseball...sometimes you have to wonder if the players couldn't just roll some dice, split the series, and move on to the offseason...can a MLB forfeit?

5) Just call White...Wild Thing III (Charlie Sheen would be I and Mitch Williams II) as he hit two batters and had two wild pitches

6) And it looks like Helton's 2011 season is over...

Box Score Bytes - Game 155

2011-09-22T07:32:00.000-07:00

1) Worse home stand in the history of the Rox...that says a lot...to think Rox had never been fully swept in their history and then to go down like this. I've said it before but this team needs some home swagger...teams no longer fear Coors and sometimes I wonder if Rox fear their home more than others...

2) In addition to the pathetic finish the Rox finished the year at home 38-43. Heck they managed 39 wins during their first season in baseball! Over 19 years they have won on average 44 games at home...

3) The 439 runs scored is the second lowest total (2008 Rox scored 411).

4) Quote I am tired of seeing, "Our center fielder is really starting to figure out who the heck he is..." Yeah bring this back up next April...and of course you could take out center fielder and put in catcher and/or third base

5) From Jim Armstrong this morning...Rox were 1-36 after 8 innings at Coors...where is that LoDo magic?

6) Not quite the send off we had hoped for by Aaron Cook...Cookie deserves a spot on the Mt Rushmore of Rox pitching. Anyone who can walk away from this game and say they lasted 10 seasons at Coors Field says something.

Box Score Bytes - Game 154

2011-09-21T12:37:00.000-07:00

1) From the yeah we know quote department, "It's an embarrassment. This season has been an utter disappointment." - Dan O'Dowd, which leads me to wonder why this man still has a job? Under his tenure Rox are 852-931 with an average place in the division at almost 4th.

2) How important is it for Rox to figure out their own division? 27-40 in the division, 43-43 against everyone else...

3) Not for sure if this was anything of note but 10 of the 19 strikeouts in the game last night were looking...Betancourt struck out the side in the 9th with three called strikeouts

4) Starting line up salaries for the Rox last night 1) EY Jr - minor league 2) Ellis - Some part of $6M 3) Fowler - $424,000 4) Smith - $429,000 5) Pacheco - minor league 6) Kouzmanoff - Some part of $4.75M 7) Rosario - minor league 8) Field - minor league 9) Chacin - $419,000 WOW cheap date last night

5) Latos goes 123 pitches and an almost complete game...unheard of!

6) Tommy Field made two great plays at short getting the third out each time...then promptly came to the plate...doesn't it seem like that happens a lot...Skip Carey, the former Braves announcer, use to always comment on that...

7) Rox bottom of the 8th summed up the year...Man on 1st and 3rd, down by two runs, only one out and pinch hitter strikes out and EY ground outs to third...no runs :(

Box Score Bytes - Game 153

2011-09-20T08:56:00.000-07:00

1) When will it end?

2) It seems to me other teams just fade away but with our Rox they seem to go down in a spectacular spiraling fiery death...last 5 home games Rox have given up 8, 9, 6, 12, and 8 runs to two teams who have been offensively challenged all season.

3) Millwood would eventually come back to earth after a somewhat spectacular late season push for a possible starting role in 2012.

4) Rox held to one hit for the second time this year...but this one was at Coors. Last night was a 12 strikeout performance from our AA field team. Where are you Don Baylor...oh yeah helping revitalize and soon to be NL West winning D-Backs.

5) Rox will finish under 0.500 at home for only the 4th time in their history. Rox have no swagger left at home anymore...teams come in loving it...and it seems Rox have forgotten their innate advantage.

6) Has management tried so hard to get a team more tailored to hit on the road and play small ball that it no longer has the tools to bash opponents at home?

7) Rox are only 4 1/2 out of being in the NL West basement...at this rate let's shoot for real infamy!

Rox Talk - Week 25

2011-09-19T14:29:00.000-07:00

The Week That Was

A 1-5 week against the Brewers and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 70-82. Seventeen and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 38-40 at home and 32-42 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 722-694 (expected wins is 73 versus historical wins at 70). On pace for 75 wins with 740 runs scored and 770 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.96 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Is this the most disappointing team in Rox history? To me there are eerily similarities between this team and the 2008 team. In 2008, Rox were coming off their World Series run and besides having the same team intact went out and finished with 74 wins. This year, with even greater expectations based on the Tulo, CarGo, de la Rosa signings, this team was certain to compete with Giants (4-11 head to head so far) and maybe win their first division title. In both years expectations shackled the team and obviously this year's team has dealt with injuries.

Going into the season the expectations were that the offense would be OK. This turned out to be wrong. Team never seemed to get on track. CarGo struggled out of the gate, Dex again spent time in the minors, Stewart was a complete bust, second base a black hole, and Smith, a very average player, did OK but Rox need more power from their outfield. Tulo had his moments and frighteningly still had a monster year, imagine some consistency and some consistency around him in the batting order (?). In the end only Helton had a year worth remembering.

Pitching was to be the mainstay with U-Ball, de la Rosa, Chacin, Hammel, and Rogers/Cook. And for the most part pitching was the reason for the monster start with some timely hitting. But U-Ball never got on track, de la Rosa got hurt, Chacin still too young to be anchoring a staff, and well Hammel is Hammel. He will get you 10-12 wins and lose 10-12. Rogers/Cook never really settled in due to injuries. In the end this year will be blamed on the Staff and injuries due to this Staff.

Bullpen was OK. Had a rough patch middle of the season and of course the roller coaster ride that is Huston Street but at least in the off season management doesn't have to worry too much about the relief corp. As a fan this season hurt the most. 2008 we were still feeding off the World Series. It has been a long 4 years now and this season was supposed to be different...problem is will 2012 truly be any different?

Box Score Bytes - Game 152

2011-09-19T12:22:00.001-07:00

1) Rox are currently 4-11 against the Giants this year with one more series to close out the year. In these 15 games the Rox have given up 74 runs or about 5 runs per game. Up to yesterday the Giants have only scored 541 runs total...take out the Rox games and this team averages 3 runs per game! Three of their top runs scored games have come at Coors where they have scored 61 runs in 10 games!

2) Rox have been swept in a 4 game series 16 times in their history (only 3 times at home). This marked the 4th tim and second time by the Giants (Arizona and Atlanta have done it as well).

3) On the bright side this is the last Sunday game at home this year. Rox went 3-9 on Sundays

4) Giants had six homers and the Panda had two in one inning!

5) With the loss Rox will have first losing season since 2008, another season filled with high hopes.

6) The only thing I can hope for at this point is that Giants continue making a run for the D-Backs and maybe Rox can spoil their plans in San Fran

Box Score Bytes - Game 151

2011-09-18T15:35:00.000-07:00

1) I am sorry but I haven't forgiven or gotten over Street's blown saves during the 2009 playoffs. Coming home with a 1-1 tie with Philly and Street took the loss on both games here in Colorado. Since then I cringe whenever he comes into a game. Last night was no different

2) Of course Tracy likes to talk about the integrity of the game and making sure you don't help teams down the stretch but at this point who can't you stand more...the Giants or D-Backs. Heck with 3 games left in San Fran the Rox could actually put it to either team...

3) And to think I thought the hero of the game was Dex who had a two run single in the bottom of the sixth to move the Rox in front 3-2...

4) For a team who has had troubled scoring runs, the Giants have taken batting practice this series...there was another two triples tonight...in the series they have hit 5 homers, 6 doubles, and 3 triples...

5) On the bright side Pacheco has a seven game hit streak

Box Score Bytes - Game 150

2011-09-17T07:31:00.000-07:00

1) How bad was that loss? Giants whose starting lineup batting averages were 0.240, 0.288, 0.297, 0.305, 0.248, 0.217, 0.194, 0.207, 0.127 scored 9 runs!

2) Cook, who was getting some work, before his final start in a Rox uniform on Wednesday had his first relief appearance since September 2003, unless you count his marvelous 3 inning putting in the All Star game!

3) Don't know what was up with the wind or perhaps it was where I was sitting but some of those homers, especially Ross's in the 5th looked sort of pathetic...homers should be titanic blast not lazy flies

4) Beltran returns, thankfully he didn't repeat his 5/12/11 Mets appearance!

5) Certain guys just seem to kill the Rox...Huff is one of them and so his Blake from LA...

6) Question of the day...how often do two out walks lead to runs?

7) Smith has 15 quiet homers...where does he fit in especially next year?

8) And finally Tommy Field has a great name and plays a decent SS

9) And who wants to be in the 2012 lineup? Rookies had 6 of the 9 hits last night

Box Score Bytes - Game 149

2011-09-16T10:21:00.000-07:00

1) Pablo Sandoval, aka the Panda, hits for the cycle. The lumbering giant got to third on an almost well played ball by CarGo but instead rolls to the wall. The tenth cycle at Coors, fourth by an opponent, and second in all of MLB this year. There is a Kung Fu Panda joke somewhere in all of this...

2) Rox are 4-7 against Giants so far this year...what is it with the Giants and Rox inability to beat them?

3) Two errors by two rookies in the second lead to 3 runs and how much did the Rox lose by? Yup amazing and I wonder how many games teams lose because the runs they gave up to errors is the amount they lose by?

4) What is the point of allowing Chacin to pitch? Shut him down for Opening Day 2012...it is painful to watc

Box Score Bytes - Game 148

2011-09-15T08:33:00.000-07:00

1) So I was whining about two out hits yesterday and wondered if the data actually played out...in just plain 2 outs situations Rox had 1853 plate appearances and had 398 hits (21%). Compare this to zero outs (1941 PA, 454 hits) and one outs (1890 PA, 445 hits) and it would suggest two outs isn't that special. Then if you look at the data with two outs and RISP then you have 739 PA with 148 hits (20%) which is essentially what you have with two outs and no ducks on the pond...

2) Rox finished the season series with Milwaukee at 3-6.

3) Glad I'm not a Brewer fan...with Fielder leaving and K-Rod angry...who knew they were in the playoff hunt?

4) Wonder if the Red Sox wished they had held onto Millwood? The man has been a beast since returning, four quality starts...sure he ain't the Millwood of hold but he gives you 6-7 innings and a chance to win...that is all you can ask for in today's game

5) CarGo homers again and Rosario goes deep for his 2nd all time homer

6) Eliezer Alfonzo, who? He plays for the Rox? Yeah well not anymore after testing positive for something banned...

Box Score Bytes - Game 147

2011-09-14T13:54:00.000-07:00

1) Rox fall to 3-8 in extra inning games. And to think our bullpen has been fairly consistent this year...they have a 19-20 record.

2) Rox give up two lousy homers and they themselves go 1 for 11 in scoring opportunities. Top of the 11th has been typical of this year and last for that matter. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs and the inability to get a key hit...this is why Baylor was let go last winter...have to start putting blame on the team at this stage..

3) Ellis gets thrown out at the plate twice!

4) CarGo becomes the 2nd Rox to have a 20 HR/20 SB season...Bichette did it as well

2012 Schedule

2011-09-14T12:08:00.000-07:00

Thanks to ESPN, here is the Rox schedule next year.

1) Open in Houston!

2) Opening Day is on a Monday (three day weekend!) against San Fran

3) Interleague at home we get Seattle (Ichiro!), Angels (always tough), and Oakland (Beane Ball)

4) Interleague away we get Detroit (again...) and Texas (hot!)

5) Close out the year in Arizona and close out Coors with the Cubs (finally, hate April Cubs games)

7) Trip from Hell I - Detroit, Philly, and Texas (three really good playoff teams...ughhh, that could be the season right there)

Rox Talk - Week 24

2011-09-13T21:58:00.000-07:00

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the D-Backs and Reds. The Rox currently stand at 69-77. Fifteen and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 38-36 at home and 31-41 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 683-671 (expected wins is 72 versus historical wins at 69). On pace for 77 wins with 745 runs scored and 758 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

With the white flag officially raised, late 2011 (or really early 2012) Spring Training is in full swing. Newcomers Pacheco, Rosario, and Pomeranz will see significant playing time in preparation for next year. With the Tulsa Drillers (Rox AA affiliate) in full review, is this a positive or negative? The biggest negative is this year's squad, as constructed, couldn't get it done. A Fowler, CarGo, Smith, Helton, Lopez, Tulo, Stewart, Iannetta lineup with Jimenez, de la Rosa, Hammel, Rogers, and Cook staff did not have sufficient talent to get to the playoffs (I still question where did that April team go?). Hard to believe, with the loss of one pitcher, the Rox season was derailed. So essentially the loss of de la Rosa started to expose the core that led to the dismal output of what is projected to be a 77 win season (10 games off what was expected as a minimum). So if 2011 lineup and staff couldn't get those extra 10 wins does Pomeranz, White, Pacheco, and Rosario going to provide that something extra?

So the 2012 lineup at this point is probably Fowler, CarGo, Mr. X, Helton, Ellis, Tulo, Pacheco (?), and Rosario with a staff consisting of Chacin, Pomeranz, White, Millwood (?), and Mr. Y (or Hammel or Rogers) with de la Rosa and possibly Nicasio coming in late in the Summer. Pitching would seem to be stocked although can Rox really rely on an inconsistent number one, two rookies, a cagey veteran, and some makeshift fifth starter? With such inexperience I could see the Rox sinking into no man's land until the cavalry comes in.

Which brings me to CarGo's announcement about "needing help" He succinctly put it that him and Tulo have had a statistically wonderful year and yet the team find themselves 8 games under 0.500. What sort of help might that be and what could the Rox legimately go after in the Fall? Look at the Brewers...they surrounded their two monster bats with mostly pitching. Problem is the Rox have never been overly successful at luring decent pitching to Coors. Free agent pitchers for next year include C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt (options remaining), Ryan Dempster (options remaining), Aaron Harany, Jeff Francis (!), Javier Vazques, and Paul Maholm. Nothing jumps out to me as a possibly Mr. Y. Of course Rox have some trade bait and some money so we shall see.

As far as Mr. X -- the early prediction appears to be Michael Cuddyer but with the Pujols and Fielder sweepstakes who knows what the Rox can steal? Anyhoo they have six months to figure it out before next season starts.

Box Score Bytes - Game 146

2011-09-11T20:33:00.000-07:00

1) Strangest lineup for the season 1) EY Jr 2) Fowler 3) Pacheco 4) Smith 5) Kouzmanoff 6) Wiggington 7) Rosario 8) Fields 9) Pomeranz...hey a cast of reserves and AA beat the Reds

2) Is the future bright? Pomeranz looked good for 5 innings throwing only 63 pitches and allowing 5 hits...will definitely be a starter next year...here are some other starters start

Aaron Cook started at home against Giants on August 26, 2002 and got a no decision giving 3 runs with no K's, 4 walks, and 9 hits

Jason Jennings started on the road at the Mets on August 23, 2001 and went 9 innings striking out 8, allowing 4 walks, and 5 hits, also hit a home run

Ubaldo Jimenez started on the road in Chicago on October 1, 2006 and got a no decision while pitching 6.2 innings, striking out 3, walking 3, allowing 3 hits, and 4 runs

Jeff Francis started in Atlanta on August 25, 2004 going 5 innings, striking out 8, walking 1, giving up 6 hits, and 6 runs and losing his first game

Jamey Wright started at home against the Giants on July 3, 1996 going 6 innings with no decision having struck out 4, walked 2, allowing 4 hits and 1 run.

3) Hammel finished the game out and earns a save for the effort. His third save all time with his last coming in September 28, 2008 when a Ray against the Tigers

4) Run EY Jr Run! Another three steals...what an intriguing player...problem is he has no position, but you can tell Tracy loves having EY at the top, followed by Fowler.

5) Who the heck is Thomas Fields? Yup another AA player called up to play SS for the ailing Tulo...this September is really try outs for 2012!

Box Score Bytes - Game 145

2011-09-11T11:59:00.000-07:00

1) Giambi's hits career home run number 428, moving him past Piazza and three behind Ripken...that makes 13 homers in 139 plate appearances.

2) Pacheco hits his first homer as a Rox.

3) Broken humidor yesterday let to a 9 home run burst in first 5 innings...White gives up 5 homers and still gets the win...he is 3-1 now with a ERA of 8.18. And this is an upgrade to U-Ball? White is the third Rox pitcher to allow 5 homers in a game...

4) Must be September because Fowler is hitting...hit his 5th home run of the season...wonder if he doesn't just do this so that he gets invited back in Spring...maybe this off season he will put in some work so that April is as good

5) At least the bullpen is back allowing only 1 hit after the home run barrage through the first 5 innings

Box Score Bytes - Game 144

2011-09-10T15:24:00.000-07:00

1) If you break the season into 18 game blocks then you have 9 blocks (or innings) and well Rox just finished the 8th inning and have 1 inning to go (18 games left) before the end of the season. 10 games below 0.500 Rox have basically averaged 8-10 or 9-9 the majority of these blocks. Sad part is they started 13-5!

2) Two errors and one inning generally don't work well together. These errors led to 4 runs and that was the game...

3) First win by the Reds in Colorado since August 2008.

4) I'm sorry but it is cruel to name a kid "Homer" and then make him a pitcher...or fate is awfully cruel!

5) The evolution of Chacin...good when in control but can't seem to overcome those middle inning struggles...he will learn...just like U-Ball.

6) Two ejections...guess Tracy and CarGo had dinner reservations at some new restaurant ;) Number four this year for Tracy. CarGo joins Tulo and Iannetta as the other ejectees

7) Rosario learns what the big leagues are about when Chapman gets him out on a 88 mph slider...whoosh

Box Score Bytes - Game 143

2011-09-08T11:46:00.000-07:00

1) Rox finished their 2011 campaign against the D-Backs going 5-13. If D-Backs go on to the playoffs then Rox deserve a share of the credit. Seemingly the Rox have always had troubles with Arizona. In 14 years of playing them they have only had 4 winning seasons against them (1999, 2004, 2007, 2009). At least we didn't go 3-15 against them like we did in 2008. Below is my attempt to gauge Rox record against our division foes. The axis is based on win percentage.

Season Records Against NL West Foes

2) Three solo homers was the sum total of the Rox run producton. Newcomer Rosario notched his first homer and pitcher Millwood got into the action and knocked one out. His first homer since 2002. CarGo got his 25th which is a nice complement to Tulo's 30th. Look at the NL leader board for homers and guess who else has 30 homers? That would be our failed acquisition in Lance Berkman. How nice that would have been!

3) Reason 1 we don't have 40 man rosters...Tracy used seven relief pitchers to get 10 outs last night..nothing like a meaningless 3 and half hour game in September with a starting game time temperature of 57 degrees.

4) And finally Tulo committed his 5th error last night, his first since the late June series in New York against the Yankees. Rox fans should take note that Tulo is one of the greatest players ever to wear the Purple Pinstripes and possibly one of the greatest players of his generation especially for a SS.

Box Score Bytes - Game 142

2011-09-07T09:00:00.000-07:00

1) Betancourt has only allowed 7 hits in the last 76 batters he has faced...one of the better O'Dowd trades...in 3 years he has gone 10-2 with 8 saves. Has pitched 145 innings and has struck out 184 and allowed only 21 walks.

2) Seth Smith has a two triple game? Now has 9 for the year. Team has 36 and ranks 3rd in the NL.

3) Tulo hits his 30th homer. What a monster year he has had, too bad the team isn't in contention otherwise he would be in the MVP talk. With 20 games to go he could go on one of his streaks...remember last year's Babe Ruth September impression?

4) The revolving door that has become the Rox bench added two new players to the mix as Jordan Pacheco and Wilin Rosario got their first starts last night. In 2011, 51 different players have worn the purple pinstripes. I thought this was a bit excessive but average over the first 18 years is 47 players with low of 36 in 1995 and a high of 56 in 2007.

5) Belisle gets his 10th win! Probably not a good sign when your middle reliever has 2nd highest win total on your team...

6) Nice outing from Dr Jekyll, errr I mean Hammel...He is now 27-30 as a Rox. A serviceable starter and that is just what he is...

Box Score Bytes - Game 141

2011-09-05T21:37:00.000-07:00

1) Tulo has his first 100 RBI season...congrats

2) Roger has given up 21 runs in the 1st inning and 6 home runs in 11 starts

3) Don't run on CarGo...awesome putout in 3rd and his 11th assist this year

4) Sitting at the ballpark and watching the crowd of 40,000 plus and I wonder if we haven't become Wrigley Field Lite? Sure management paid good money on some nice players and yet here we are in September mired in 4th place and where is the rage? Why aren't we more disappointed at this point. D-Backs swept us last week and come in and beat us today and there you have it...

5) How often do pitchers throw over to first in a game?

6) Roger is batting 0.318, not bad for a former SS

7) Since 1876 there have been 3,578,333 hits equaling 2,585,453 singles (72.3%), 601,320 doubles (16.8%), 127,448 triples (3.6%), and 264,112 home runs (7.4%). So could you judge a batter based on his ratio?

8) Dex still on a tear homers from both sides of the plate in the 1st and 9th inning

Rox Talk - Week 23

2011-09-05T12:23:00.000-07:00

The Week That Was

A 2-4 week against the D-Backs and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 66-74. Fourteen games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 35-33 at home and 31-41 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 636-653 (expected wins is 68 versus historical wins at 66). On pace for 76 wins with 736 runs scored and 756 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

And that is the end of the 2011 season. Not that the Rox really had a chance but being swept in Arizona ended any remote possibilities that the Rox could sneak in. With 22 games remaining, the 2012 campaign gets a looksee. September call ups sweep in and hopefully add some bright spots to an otherwise forgettable 2011 season. As a fan this season more than any other one since at least 2007 was the worse ever. It also eerily parallels the 2008 season. This one is probably worse because of the off season signings, the April dominance, and finally just the complete collapse of the starting pitching. Without going too far into an end of season posting, I guess the Rox really need to look at what it is that they are missing. Tulo and CarGo are both going to walk away with fine seasons. Two potent weapons make the Rox at least competitive on paper but I think management needs to take away from this season is that two players can't elevate a team to win. Young position players can't make a leap and contribute and that team needs to start truly evaluating what it has. I think we saw that with U-Ball trade. Let's hope they continue this Fall.

Box Score Bytes - Game 140

2011-09-04T21:12:00.000-07:00

1) Dex continues his late season tear including 3 more hits which included his 15th triple which sets a new team record

2) With Rox record at Petco this season at 6 and 9 have to wonder if maybe Rox are currently built for the wrong park. Not that our team doesn't have power but have to wonder...

3) And if Cook didn't already have a nail in the coffin as a Rox, today reaffirmed that Cook won't be in purple pinstripes next year. Petco is Cook's savior (14-6, 2.98 career ERA) and yet allowed 3 runs and 4 walks

Box Score Bytes - Game 139

2011-09-03T23:16:00.000-07:00

1) Since Fowler has returned he has 26 extra-base hits in 47 games.

2) Rox get their first win from their U-Ball trade...meanwhile U-Ball has gone 2-1 and the team has gone 3-3.

3) Betancourt got his 6th save in 10 chances.

4) Rox are 26-33 against the NL West and 32-34 against the rest of the NL.

Box Score Bytes - Game 138

2011-09-03T12:30:00.000-07:00

1) Dex gets his 14th triple....adds to his ongoing Rox team season record2) Millwood goes 7 strong with 8 strikeouts, NO WALKS, and only allowing seven hits...think Tulo said it best when he said Millwood can, "teach these young guys that it’s not about stuff, it’s about pitching"3) Seventh shutout by the staff this year4) Millwood has 161 career wins and last night was 100 in the NL

Box Score Bytes - Game 137

2011-09-01T21:04:00.000-07:00

1) Is it over yet? Being swept away by Arizona just stinks...maybe we can return the favor next weekend

2) Dex goes deep for a second night in a row...just come him Mr August and September

3) 5th time this season being swept and are 1-5 on the road trip...

4) Tulo hates the Snakes too batting a whooping 6 for 52...yeah I would take the day off too

Box Score Bytes - Game 136

2011-08-30T22:01:00.000-07:00

1) Dex ends his homer drought...went 382 at bats before finally homering

2) For August CarGo is batting 0.340 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs and Tulo is batting 0.360 with 8 homers and 21 RBIs and yet we are 13-15 for the month

3) Cook's will go out with a whimper...hate to see time finally catch up with one of Rox best

4) Go figure, Rox have 4 batters with three hits each and yet only score 4 runs, huh?

Box Score Bytes - Game 135

2011-08-29T23:29:00.000-07:00

1) Carlos Gonzalez named the NL Player of the Week. In 6 games he hit .481 (13-27) w/ 3 HR, 10 RBI and .889 SLG.

2) White's second start reminded me a lot of Aaron Cook...functional but if his pitch ain't working then it will be a real long night

3) One lousy run...boy the run has not been nice 235 runs scored 67 games while at home they have scored 385 in 68 games

Rox Talk - Week 22

2011-08-29T20:33:00.000-07:00

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Astros and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 64-70. Ten and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 35-33 at home and 29-37 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 624-619 (expected wins is 67 versus historical wins at 63). On pace for 77 wins with 748 runs scored and 754 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox finally have a decent home stand going 7-2 and sweep the Astros last week. Face it the Rox aren't going anywhere this year. Management has done its best to indicate they aren't throwing in the towel and continue to talk like there is still an outside chance to squeak into the playoffs. Waiver claim on Wandy Rodriquez at least indicates there willingness to make something happen. When the season is over pitching problems will probably define this lost season and so I applaud Rox for at least making an effort.

Unfortunately we then compare a nice three game sweep to almost getting swept in LA over the weekend. Media types would like us to think that LA and the owner problems swirling around the team would describe why they are in 4th place and treading water. The problem I see is that not much separates LA from our Rox. Both have some nice young starting pitching (well we used to have UBall and Kershaw, Chacin and Billingsly), decent bullpen, some nice offensive pieces (like Kemp and Either/Loney against Tulo and CarGo), and good dugout coaches and you know what? Both teams are 6 - 8 games under 0.500 and going no where this year. Kind of shows you that a lot of nice individual pieces don't always fit together to form a complete team.

And the worst thing about all of this? Yup D-Backs were 80 to 1 odds to win the world series (worse in our division) while our Rox were 20 to 1 and who gets the opportunity in October...yup that would probably by the D-Backs. Yikes baseball can sure mess with us.

Understatement of the Year
"I wonder where we would be if we had 50-55 more RBIs from third base. Been an issue all year," Tracy said

Look What I Did
I sent this along...

Box Score Bytes - Game 134

2011-08-28T20:56:00.000-07:00

1) Chacin raised his season total for walks to 78...most in NL..sixth time this season he has walked five or more.

2) This time Betancourt won by striking out Loney...once again dangerous territory for our Rox

3) CarGo club record RBI streak ended at 11 games

Box Score Bytes - Game 133

2011-08-27T23:19:00.000-07:00

1) Hey another extra inning loss...bad year for extras as Rox are 3-7

2) James Loney...really...has 8 homers this year and 6 of them off Rox pitchers?

3) Wasted Troy's 50th multihit game of the year and his 6th career multi homer game

4) CarGo extended hitting streak to 14 games and 11 consecutive games with a RBI...

5) So hmmm Troy and CarGO...Awesome...rest of the team...Average...and we still get beat!

6) 97 degrees today in LA...wow that's hot

Box Score Bytes - Game 132

2011-08-26T23:06:00.000-07:00

1) One lousy inning...two balks...six runs later...and that was the ballgame

2) Vin Scully will be back for his 63rd of broadcasting...that is simply amazing!

3) CarGo's 24th homer

Box Score Bytes - Game 131

2011-08-24T20:56:00.000-07:00

1) Rox ain't dead yet...63-68...owners of 5 game winning streak...have tied up their run scored/run against differential at 605 - 605

2) Walk off wild pitch? Now I've heard of everything!

3) Rox 3-6 in extra innings...

4) CarGo, officially en fuego...7 HRs in last 12 games

5) New number 15 (last worn by Jay Payton in 2010) is Kouzmanoff, a Colorado high school grad..

6) Hammel goes bullpen for the first time

Box Score Bytes - Game 130

2011-08-23T23:14:00.000-07:00

1) Back and forth battle this evening...some questionable plate umpiring, questionable out/safe calls, some good/bad defense, and some great old time Coors Field home runs. A little bit of everything!

2) First off we had the Waxahachie Swap which I totally missed and apparently the Denver Post can't annotate very well. Wright pitched 1/3 inning not 2/3 has shown but I'm guessing the newspaper editor (?) or program they use won't allow a same name pitcher to pitch twice in one inning with a pitcher in between?

Probably one of the more rare things to see at a baseball game...wow

3) On the night our ticket stubs have Ubaldo pitching, his heir apparent (at least trade wise) made his debut. No decision and he fought valiantly but his ERA after 3 innings was 9.00 (just saying)

4) Rox are third in the league with 382 extra base hits

5) Belisle was 7-4 going into the game then picked up his 8th win. He is second on the team behind Chacin's 10

6) Brothers got his first save

7) Smith in Left Field and CarGo in Right? Paid off in the seventh with a fabulous diving catch to probably save the game for Rox

8) Talking CarGo has of last night he had 22 HR and 22 doubles

9) Old man Helton has 120 hits...gee only 2-3 years of that and he might sniff 3,000 hits

10) Smith hit a long home run...478 feet...hitting the facade of right field upper deck over the bullpen...longest one I have ever seen in Coors...monster!

Box Score Bytes - Game 129

2011-08-22T23:25:00.000-07:00

1) Rox move back to playing 0.500 at home...last 4 years they have average 0.600 clip at home

2) While it is a nice thought that the Rox have turned a corner (winners in 3 straight games!) they have a long way to go in their last 33 games. 20-13 to finish 0.500 and 26-7 to get to my preseason expectation. Maybe they will bookend their season with a great April and September!

3) As fate would have it Barmes, longtime Rox, came up with two outs in the ninth down by 4. While the bases weren't juiced it would have been dramatic if it had been...fortunately for Rox he struck out.

4) CarGo has a 10 game hit streak in which he his bating 14-38 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Could the team ride CarGo and Tulo to the playoffs? Stranger things have happened and we do have 13 games left against D-backs and Giants...just saying

Rox Talk - Week 21

2011-08-22T21:12:00.001-07:00

The Week That Was

A 4-2 week against the Marlins and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 60-68. Nine and half games behind the D-Backs for the division lead in third place. Currently 32-33 at home and 28-35 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 588-581 (expected wins is 63 versus historical wins at 60). On pace for 76 wins with 735 runs scored and 744 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.99 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So hypothetically, based on runs scored vs runs against, Rox should be 63-65 and thus possibly only 6.5 games back from leading the division (assuming Rox had some luck on their side this year). In addition let's also assume they are playing 0.600 at home (average over the last 4 years) which means Rox should have about 38 wins at home this year versus the 32 they currently have. So let's say they aren't raking at home but still winning at home then Rox should be sitting at maybe 66 - 62 right now and about 3.5 back? How frustrated are you now with Rox season? Amazing to think that we throw in some luck and better home record and realistically Rox aren't that far away from contending in the West. Now of course the reason for close run differential is attributable to a bunch of blow out wins at home.

1 run (18-23)
2 runs (11-12)
3 runs (11-12)
4 runs (4-5)
5 runs (4-5)
6 runs (2-4)
7 runs (2-3)
8+ runs (7-4)

Yup when you lead in the 8+ runs department it shows our Rox have about 24 run swing differential going for us.

So looking at the record it looks like we should be a little better off...what about season projections? 75% through the season the offense looks like this (note: projections were based on who likely was going to be the starters throughout the season):

Blue is last season's numbers, yellow is the average from the experts (with error), and the next three are final 162 projection after each quarter. First quarter had a lot of super stars who then fell back to earth the second quarter. Third quarter has come back and for the most part CarGo, Fowler, Helton, Tulo, Smith, Iannetta, and Wiggy have lived up to expectations. Amazing thing is even with these seven players living up to expectations the team is on pace to score about 75 runs less than expected.

And the pitchers?

Mostly just a mess. U-Ball was certainly not what we expected. De la Rosa got hurt and Cook was hurt before finally coming back. Chacin has been good but has struggled and Hammel has just regressed. Bullpen has been steady although the Paulino thing never worked out. Fill ins like Nicasio were huge and currently the runs allowed projection is about on based on what was expected.

Hard to believe but it is the offense holding our Rox back!

Box Score Bytes - Game 128

2011-08-21T20:33:00.000-07:00

1) Rox are 8-7 against LA this year. One more three game series in LA next week and another season against our nemesis is done

2) Rox finally win after 17 consecutive losses...last win was on on April 17...just about when the Rox decided to tank the season

3) Amazing how Rox find these pitchers on the scrap heap...Millwood gets his first win since last September...of course if I was Millwood pitching for Red Sox AAA club I probably wouldn't want to be called up either

Box Score Bytes - Game 127

2011-08-20T20:46:00.000-07:00

Just a note but you observe a whole lot more when sitting at a ball game...:)

1) Dex has 12 triples!

2) EY Jr trying to be like Dad today...3 stolen bases...half way to his Dad's record of 6 (see this game)

3) Tulo's numbers sure look good 0.307 25 85 and CarGo not bad either at 0.288 20 72 (missed about 20 games)

4) Helton's B-Day and he hits a homerun...how about that! Also did it in'98, '00, '02, '04.

5) Dodgers pitcher Lilly is kind of tiny out there on the mound but he is 6'1"!

6) Rogers is 6-2 but has a 6.00 ERA?

7) Two Juniors leading off for each team...both sons of former greats

8) $5 beers? Ugh do you realize that is $30 six pack...wow

9) Two errors (one by Tulo and one by Helton) and yet scorer gives the Dodgers two singles

Box Score Bytes - Game 126

2011-08-17T22:44:00.000-07:00

1) Cook goes 8 innings and Rox scored some runs (and batted around twice!)

2) Marlins starter allows 11 runs on 11 hits

3) Cook started his 13 game and has has 9 consecutive years of 13 or more starts...pretty impressive

Box Score Bytes - Game 125

2011-08-16T22:37:00.000-07:00

1) Almost another come from behind win...Giambi makes it close with another homer but Dex popped out to end the game

2) Chacin now 9-10 has been maddeningly inconsistent. Great stuff one game, struggles the next...trials of a young pitcher

Box Score Bytes - Game 124

2011-08-15T22:35:00.000-07:00

1) Four run ninth and first walk off win of the year! The Great Giambino comes throw on hanging slider beautiful

2) First win when trailing after eight 0-55

3) 8th game in row with a homer

Box Score Bytes - Game 122

2011-08-14T22:28:00.000-07:00

1) More bases loaded inadequacy...what does the great Baseball Reference say?

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
123	77	145	124	90	30	10	2	1	86	12	26	0.242	0.303	0.379	0.682	0.279

2) Now 2 and 17 on Sundays this year!

Box Score Bytes - Game 121

2011-08-13T21:26:00.000-07:00

1) Interestingly Rox loss the previous night 6-1 and came back tonight to win 6-1. This has happened four other times this year: Game 57 and 58, Game 73 and 74, Game 79 and 80, and Game 117 and 118

2) Rox have at least homered in their last 6 road games

3) Rox like lefties and have hit 33 homers (2nd in NL)

Box Score Bytes - Game 120

2011-08-12T22:00:00.000-07:00

1) One inning seems to be the death of Cook...this time allowed 5 runs in 6th

2) Rox drop to 10 games below 0.500

3) Bases loaded and nothing...

4) Holliday is 0.367 with 3 homers against his former mates

Box Score Bytes - Game 119

2011-08-11T20:09:00.000-07:00

1)Chacin, once again, goes 8 innings (complete game) and losses. Believe this is #4 for our pitcher this year

2) Just a random note: A pitcher needs one inning for each of his team’s games to qualify for the ERA title.

Box Score Bytes - Game 118

2011-08-10T23:20:00.000-07:00

1) Welcome back to the show Mr Millwood, gave up 3 solo home runs but I guess kept Rox in the game...

2) Rox had 9 singles off of the starter and grounded into 4 double plays for the game.

3) And goodbye Ian Stewart...FOREVER?

4) Rox still haven't swept the Reds at home in a 4 game series in their history

5)Mr Obvious:

“We made a base-running error with two outs,” Tracy said. “I don’t think there was going to be a play whatsoever at first base. The only play they had was to tag a runner going from second to third with two outs.”

Every team will have their share of base running gaffes over a season. That is baseball, but seemingly we are still having these when the game matters and when aggressiveness isn't called for. Does our team listen?

Box Score Bytes - Game 117

2011-08-09T23:34:00.000-07:00

1)Didn't know Rogers started life as a shortstop and accordingly made a nice defensive play to secure the win. “We know our pitchers,” Tulowitzki said. “He’s pretty athletic. He can pretty much cover the whole right side. Sometimes, you’ve got to take chances to win games.”

2)Betancourt notches first save of the year and 20th all time

3)Tulo homers yeah

Box Score Bytes - Game 116

2011-08-08T23:19:00.000-07:00

1) Battle for Most Disappointing Team and/or Season. Baseball mystery to why teams seemingly filled with talent can't seem to win.

2) Teams combined for 7 home runs...4 for Rox and 3 for Reds...which accounted for 15 of the 17 runs

3) Smith has two homers for his 5th multihomer game second time this year in Ohio

4) What is it with Smith? Why doesn't he play more, why does his defense suddenly stink, and what did he do to Tracy?

Rox Talk - Week 19

2011-08-08T20:27:00.001-07:00

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the Philies and Nats. The Rox currently stand at 53-62. Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 28-31 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 529-518 (expected wins is 56 versus historical wins at 54). On pace for 75 wins with 730 runs scored and 745 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

So much for some home cooking. Not that going against the Phillies is an easy task (swept away) but to split the series with the Nats just goes to show how miserable home has been for our Rox. Interesting that within the past couple of weeks the media, fans, and management have started to realize our Rox aren't very good on the major league roster and don't have much in the minors either. Funny how before the season started the organization seemed to be moving in the right direction and yet with the pathetic season in front of us the big questions come out to suggest that not all is all rosy for our hometown team.

I thought this season projection was a bit off when it came out but now I am not so sure...this quote pretty much sums it up, "If you were looking for a definition of a stars and scrubs lineup, this would be as good an example as any." Guess our scrubs didn't do it and to think we got rid of Don Baylor because our scrubs stopped relating to Baylor...check the standings scrubs how those D-Backs getting along with Baylor? Maybe management needs to start being realistic next year...and stop listening to the scrubs.

Todd Helton
The other night when listening to some broadcast someone mentioned that one of the players had reached 650 plate appearances against one team and had such such numbers. Since 650 plate appearances is approximately a season, the question would be what would Helton's seasons numbers be against the teams he has faced. For what it is worth Todd has only has 650 plate appearances for teams against the NL West foes but one can extrapolate based on 650 plate appearances. For comparison Todd has averaged 28 homers, 103 RBIs, and has batted 0.323.

Toss out Rays, Twins and Athletics, Todd has had some phenomenal team seasons against Nats, Cards, Astros, Marlins, Dodgers, Philies and Pirates. Interesting to note that Rox have always struggled against the Braves and so does Todd. Besides the AL teams the Braves are his worse team season. He hasn't fared to well against Giants and Padres too.

Box Score Bytes - Game 115

2011-08-07T22:18:00.000-07:00

1) Rox unable to win a 4 game series and settle for a split

2) Hard to watch a pitcher who has given so much to the organization start to flounder. Been a tough grind this year and will probaby be Cook's last as a Rox

3) Got to love a reliever who has 9 decisions which Belisle has (5-4)

4) Who is Eliezer Alfonzo and how do you pronouce is name? Did get 3 hits today

Box Score Bytes - Game 114

2011-08-06T23:23:00.000-07:00

1) Hit parade leading to 15 runs (18th time this has happened, second time this year, and we are 18-0!)

2) Chacin goes to 9-8...some smoke and mirrors with his pitching (high walk rate and low ERA....)

3) Rox got seven hits in the 5th inning (sometimes that is a game!)

Box Score Bytes - Game 113

2011-08-05T23:20:00.000-07:00

1) Awful sight with Nicasio getting hit in the head with a line drive...

2) Tough to win on a night like tonight

Box Score Bytes - Game 112

2011-08-05T11:48:00.000-07:00

This morning on the Colin Coward radio show he had a nifty piece on three words to describe every NFL team, so here goes my take on the MLB

Rox - Simply unrealistic expectations
Giants - Pitching just wins
Dodgers - Need new owner
D-Backs - Managers do count
Padres - Rebuilding once again

Cubs - Not this year
Pirates - Not football yet
Cardinals - Win with injuries
Reds - Remember last year?
Brewers - Not road warriors
Houston - Just like NASA

Phillies - Wow they're good
Braves - Love our pitchers
Nats - Maybe next year
Marlins - Waiting new stadium
Mets - Ponzi schemes suck

Red Sox - Built to win
Yankees - Just all stars
Rays - We are underachievers
Blue Jays - Hate AL East
Orioles - Love basement living

Tigers - Someone will win
Indians - Look at us
White Sox - Kind of boring
Twins - An off year
Royals - Look at Pirates...

Rangers - Rough and tough
A's - Moneyball ain't working
Angels - Smoke and mirrors
Mariners - Weak ass lineup

Box Score Bytes - Game 111

2011-08-03T22:20:00.000-07:00

1) Halladay makes his second start at Coors. He had a no decision the first time and even on the ropes this time around, gives up 6 runs, and yet still wins. Who couldn't win with the Phillies offense?

2) Lidge, another Colorado product, came in and got the save. Not terribly nice to treat the hometown fans!

3) Rox get swept for the first time by the Phillies in Colorado in May 1999

Box Score Bytes - Game 110

2011-08-02T23:07:00.000-07:00

1) So Rox don't get one of the big three (Halladay, Lee, Oswalt) and still get shut out...again a big giant yikes!

Box Score Bytes - Game 109

2011-08-01T22:59:00.000-07:00

1) Really Street? You throw eight straight sliders and you think the 9th might sneak by? Lose a game, one pitch away...ughhhh

2) Another extra inning lost...tough loss...now 1-6

3) Think about it...Phillies just moved to 30 games over 0.500...Rox have a long way to go

4) Strangest name in baseball...Antonio Bastardo

5) One of the mysteries of Jim Tracy...Smith now has 42nd extra base hit of the year, second to Tulo's 49 and yet he still isn't an everyday player

Rox Talk - Week 18

2011-08-01T12:54:00.000-07:00

The Week That Was

A 3-3 week against the Dodgers and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 51-57. Ten games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 25-31 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 494-483 (expected wins is 53 versus historical wins at 50). On pace for 77 wins with 725 runs scored and 741 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox concluded their nine day West Coast swing with a 4-5 record. With all the trade talk and stress of traveling, I guess Rox should look at this trip as a positive. The frustration has got to be in their play at home. To have only one more win at home then the road pretty much sums up the Rox this year. In additon to their miserable home play, I think this quote by Tulo also suggests why home as been so frustrating, "There have been a couple of times where I thought we were going to get momentum and go on a run, and we weren't able to win, it's kind of the story of the season." Home is where hot streaks start and if you can't get it done there, doing it on the road can be tough.

Ubaldo Jimenez
And now to the hard part. If this team is going to get back to 0.500 this year, then it is going to be done without their ace. Traded on Saturday to the Cleveland Indians for 4 prospects (3 pitchers and utility man), O'Dowd is once again betting that he can roll the dice, trade a gem in Jimenez, and get something more.

As a fan I hate this deal, but as someone who also understands the landscape of the baseball world this deal is exactly what small market clubs do to stay afloat. Twins did it with Santana, Indians did it with Sabithia and Lee a few years back...it is finger crossing move on both sides hoping that what transpires in this year for the Indians is positive and next year and year after for the Rox. Face it, this trade was the result of Rox management failing in the draft especially in pitching. Four high end pitchers have been taken from 2006 - 2009 and not one is in the big leagues. This year with the loss of de la Rosa, it showed that a high level draft pick couldn't be slotted in the rotation and instead they had to go with an undrafted AA pitcher to fill in (Nicasio). How much do Rox have invested in these drafted four pitchers (Reynolds, Weathers, Friedrich, and Matzek) and have yet to see any (if any?) return in .

I criticized O'Dowd for the Holliday deal. I thought it was just plain awful but time seems to heal the wounds as Street and CarGo have been a pretty good return. Hopefully in couple years we can say the same for this trade.

So thank you Ubaldo for being a pitcher who helped us get to the World Series in 2007, threw the team's first no hitter, made us proud in the All Star game, and had a heck of a start last year. Here are some other numbers:

1) Owns three of the ten best starts in Rox history:
4/17/10 no hitter in Atlanta:
The Chief dominates
Throws the Rox first no hitter
Dexter saves the day!

6/1/11 start this year in LA 4 hit shutout 106 pitch 7 K game:
Return of U-Ball
Ace goes nine, shuts out Dodgers
Ends game with strikeout!

and 5/31/10 in San Fran allowing 4 hits and 9 K:
Take that Halladay
Cy Young in Colorado?
His name, Jimenez

2) 56 - 45 overall record with a team record when starting at 69 - 68 (also went 47 - 29 in the minors). He spent 10 years in the Rox organization.

3) Fourth in team history for WAR (at 17.4).

4) 24 - 22 against the NL West (team went 32 - 31 in his starts against the West) Rox going to miss this!

5) Only allowed 55 homers in 851 innings pitched.

6) Faced 3,592 batters and struck out 773 of them

7) Good thing going to the AL has he only had 37 hits in 370 plate appearances. Never hit more than a single in those 37 hits

8) Pitched 67 games at home (30 - 19) and 71 on the road (26 - 26) and amazingly surrendered 189 runs at home and 186 runs away.

9) Was not a tight game pitcher. When Rox only scored 0 - 2 runs went 2 - 27 but 26 - 2 when team scored 6+ runs. Was 28 - 16 when Rox scored between 3 - 5 runs.

10) Got most of his strikeouts on 1-2 and 2-2 counts (478).

11) ERA in first three innings (3.79), innings 4 - 6 (3.69), and final three innings (2.95).

12) Only got 48 batters out in foul territory...

13) Threw 14,048 pitches has a starter...8,516 for a strike

14) He has never thrown in Cleveland. Owns a 6-4 record against the AL...1-2 against the Tigers

15) And finally 26 - 17 against teams with less than 0.500 record and 30 - 28 against teams greater than 0.500

Box Score Bytes - Game 108

2011-07-31T22:50:00.000-07:00

1) Belisle had one of his meltdowns...in three seasons as a Rox he has 48 shutdowns and 23 meltdowns (as described by fangraphs.com)

2) Ruins a nice day by Nicasio, who struck out 10 in seven innings

3) Rox still have not swept a 3 game series this year

Box Score Bytes - Game 107

2011-07-30T23:45:00.000-07:00

1) Most dreadful one inning pitched in Rox history...U-Ball goes out and then promptly gets traded!

2) Rox first grand slam of the season by journeyman catcher Eliezer Alfonzo.

3) Rox now 11-3 in the last 14 at Petco...go figure yin and yang in ballparks, Coors vs Petco, yet Rox love it...to bad small can't be done in other parks.

Box Score Bytes - Game 106

2011-07-29T23:37:00.000-07:00

1) Nothing like your winning run being a balk, of course it wasn't a walk off balk but still!

2) Street got his 28 of 30th save...as much as we doubt his ability, in the end he does get the jobs done.

3) If Hammel doesn't work in Colorado he is 3-0 in four starts at Petco...just saying

Box Score Bytes - Game 105

2011-07-27T23:01:00.000-07:00

1) Cook wins and had 13 of his 21 outs being groundouts. Last year his percentage of groundouts was 74.2%. Yes he is a groundout pitcher but winning percentage and percentage of groundouts thrown doesn't really seem to matter

2) The Adventures of Street did his usual bit to make us cringe. 31 pitch save including a home run. Ughhh

Box Score Bytes - Game 104

2011-07-26T23:51:00.000-07:00

1) Dodgers Kershaw has 173 strikeouts, four more than Detroit's Verlander

2) Third time this season a Rox pitcher has gone the distance and lost, on the road

3) Errors lead to unearned runs which lead to losses...that is baseball

Box Score Bytes - Game 103

2011-07-25T23:47:00.000-07:00

1) So close so far away. Rox storm back with a 4 run ninth only to fall short with bases loaded and down by three

2) Tulo goes after the first pitch and pops up for the final out with bases loaded. Come on you have to work the count in that situation with the bases loaded and the pitcher under the gun. Sometimes one has to wonder the maturity of Tulo in situations like this. You have to wonder if he tries too hard..

Rox Talk - Week 17

2011-07-25T19:48:00.001-07:00

The Week That Was

A 3-4 week against the Braves and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 48-54. Eleven games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 22-28 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 466-457 (expected wins is 50 versus historical wins at 48). On pace for 76 wins with 726 runs scored and 740 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

The Real World
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has been diagnosed with leukemia. I don't know Dave but his work has been a bedrock of the baseball stat world (Mt Rushmore maybe?). As baseball nerds, we certainly can get buried in the minutia of the game. I found this to be an interesting quote from someone who does play the numbers game,

"History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking..."

I think it is helpful for us all to remember that while baseball stats do tend to show tendencies and likely outcomes, the human element can make a difference even if it doesn't show up in the box score. That is why I think Dave will beat this because he is a baseball fan and understands the numbers don't always decide who wins or loses. Does Dave Roberts steal of second base in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS a statistic blip or does it show what the human element can do to influence a win or to live life?

Of course looking at the Rox it has been an incredibly disappointing season. Once again expectations were so great and 100 games into the season all we have to show for it is a close to .500 season. Numbers would seem to have been in our favor but somewhere that human element showed up and no matter what the numbers say in the end we sometimes just shrug our shoulders and hope maybe it will be better next year...Cubs fans sure hope so ;)

Box Score Bytes - Game 102

2011-07-24T23:43:00.000-07:00

1) Gee think U-Ball has things on his mind...he gets shelled

2) Another loss on Sunday

3) Rox are now 3-10 in finales of three game series

Box Score Bytes - Game 101

2011-07-23T23:40:00.000-07:00

1) Gee another bad start for Hammel...4-0 before recorded his first out. Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde!

2) From the obvious department, “It is somewhat of an insurmountable task when you spot the opposition seven runs in the first two innings of the game,” said Rockies manager Jim Tracy. “Actually, it’s somewhat unacceptable.”

3) From the you gotta be joking department,“It’s almost comical to me because tonight was the best I felt all year,” Hammel said.

4) Helton gets his 547th double tying him for 24th all time with Manny!

Box Score Bytes - Game 100

2011-07-22T23:36:00.000-07:00

1) Cookie's first win of the season and franchise leading 70th win!

2) Fowler a home run short of the cycle

3) CarGo goes on 15 day disabled list

Box Score Bytes - Game 99

2011-07-21T22:15:00.000-07:00

1) Nothing like the inability to win a game after leading 4-0...

2) Tough to see the team battle, take back leads, and yet still lose. This is the story of the year!

Box Score Bytes - Game 98

2011-07-20T23:10:00.000-07:00

1) Walk Off!

2) Good defense win games

3) Nicasio loves pitching at home...UPDATED 4-1 at home, 0-3 away. 1.98 ERA at home, 7.04 away. Funny thing is he has more strikeouts away (2 more) but tends to walk more away. Interesting he he has given up 3 more hits on the road and yet allowed 15 less runs to score at home.

Box Score Bytes - Game 97

2011-07-19T23:03:00.000-07:00

1) U-Ball's last home start? Hope not...

2) Rox first win this year against the Braves...again our long time nemises 57 - 92 all time, worst winning percentage against any team in NL.

3) Games like this just continue to mask the overall poor performance of this team. Outscoring the opponent by 9 runs bumps up the runs score versus runs against and just continues to make us think this team should be better than it is...

Box Score Bytes - Game 96

2011-07-18T23:57:00.000-07:00

1) Amazing that management hasn't fixed the sun issue at Coors...Helton losing the ball in the second inning sealed the Rox fate

2) Who is Freeman and why does he hate the Rox so much? UPDATE: After the series he finished 14/32 with 6 home runs in 8 games!

Rox Talk - Week 16

2011-07-18T22:12:00.001-07:00

The Week That Was

A 2-2 week against the Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 45-50. Nine and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 24-24 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 422-421 (expected wins is 47 versus historical wins at 44). On pace for 77 wins with 718 runs scored and 720 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.00 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Double Plays

In a tweet by @schoolofrox he she (my apologies!) wondered if Rox double play machine was that good or our defense is just given too many opportunities or chances to excel? Data from Baseball Reference kindly tabulates (see below) the number of opportunities (Opp) in which the opposing team has a runner on first with less than two outs and the number of double plays. Data shows Rox are below average in opportunities and extremely good at getting the opposing team to hit into a double play.

All Star Game

Another exciting (note the sarcasm) All Star game in the books. For the second year in a row, the NL wins thus ensuring home field advantage in the World Series. Unlike other games this one seemed lopsided from the start. The NL pitching roster was just filthy while most of the AL star pitchers were watching this one on TV. Not for sure if the players felt that way too but it seemed the NL was in it to win it while the AL just simply went through the motions. Not a lot of excitement from the AL. Kind of disheartening...

U-Ball Trade Rumors

Popping up in some twitter feeds and blog postings is the thought that the Rox are listening to possible trade propositions for U-Ball's services. Funny how rumors like this start. Suddenly we hear that U-Ball is disgruntled because of the money shelled out to CarGo and Tulo this past fall. We hear management has been frustrated with undisclosed injuries and what not. Certainly a situation ripe for conspiracy baseball theorist but I have to think a lot of this is just not true.

I don't know U-Ball personally but he seems like a nice kid. Doesn't need his ego fed. As far as his lackluster finish last year and struggles this year it would seem that maybe we don't know the whole picture. I give credit at least for the Rox listening. Some teams might get desperate and with our salary impairments being able to rake in a treasure trove of players might just be the way to get things done (i.e. Texas Rangers?).

It is obvious to me that 2011 is done and like it or not this current make up isn't going to get it done. Too many holes to fill and certain players haven't developed as planned. Rox threw the dice and came up empty. Rox aren't going into the free agent market to remake this team so really the only way to get better on paper is to trade a high value pitcher and hope prospects get us to the next level.

Sure hate to see a fireballer get sent away but baseball takes 25 guys and right now the three O's aren't enough to even win the NL Wild West...how are we going to beat the likes of Philadelphia or Atlanta? That is why I don't buy jersey with a player's name on it because in the Colorado market who know what Dealin' Dan might just do...

Box Score Bytes - Game 95

2011-07-17T20:42:00.000-07:00

1) Rox fail to win the series after going up 2-0...can't seem to close the door and get on a roll...

2) Glorious Giambi homer into the right field upper deck...simply magical...love to see it when a ball and bat meet up just right and it goes and goes...especially a Giambi homer

3) So close in the ninth, yet so far away...got to like your chances with Tulo at the plate and then see him strike out on three pitches...ughhh

Box Score Bytes - Game 94

2011-07-16T23:18:00.000-07:00

1) Really bad call at the plate and dual ejections of Tracy and Iannetta

2) Another blown save by Street and is now 0-3 for the season...we won't call him Street we will call him Break the Streak

3) You think “It just wasn’t my best pitch,” Street said. “I was trying to throw a slider down and I threw a slider that was belt high. Sometimes, they foul it back. He didn’t foul it back.”

Box Score Bytes - Game 93

2011-07-15T23:11:00.000-07:00

1) A shutout! Number six on the year...

2) Brewer's have the Rox disease...can't win on the road, have a NL worst percentage of 0.340.

3) I like the symmetry of the Rox scoring pattern

Box Score Bytes - Game 92

2011-07-14T23:02:00.000-07:00

1) Spilly a triple shy of the cycle...

2) In U-Ball's previous 4 starts, Rox scored a whooping seven runs!

Rox Talk - Week 15

2011-07-11T17:22:00.001-07:00

The Week That Was

A 2-5 week against the Braves and Nationals. The Rox currently stand at 43-48. Eight and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 22-22 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 407-395 (expected wins is 44 versus historical wins at 43). On pace for 77 wins with 703 runs scored and 725 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

First half - Done. First divisional championship - Unlikely. Playoff hopes - Doubtful. No matter how you package the first half, once again the Rox have been disappointing and expectations have not been met. Over the last two years, coming into the season, the management, team, media, and fans have all come to a conclusion that this would be the year. The year to finally compete with the big boy teams and make another run to the World Series. Throw in the fact that this year, the Rox signed Tulo and CarGo to long term deals, re-signed de la Rosa, and signed some nice components off the scrap heap, the Rox had hoped to compete. Unfortunately after a 17-9 April start, things have gone down hill quickly. Middle of the road teams like our Rox really need to have all things work. They don't have the resiliency to have players not play to their perceived capabilities. Rox are currently on pace to score 703 runs. Preseason projections expected this team to score close to 800 runs. Where did all the runs go? Lowest total in Rox history before this year? 740 in 2005.

My in season analysis - small payroll team's like the Rox get killed when the run expectancy changes so quickly. How many teams out there forgot what small ball was? You build teams 5 years ago at least with an eye on how to win in your league, division, and ball park. What if the rug gets pulled out from under you and suddenly low scoring, one run games become the norm and yet you build a team on big home run hitters with pedestrian speed? I think it becomes tough to pull a switcheroo mid season. You can't just go out and find speed. Sad thing is our Rox do have some speed and yet he finds himself playing AAA ball.

All in all, to finish with 90 wins they need to go 48 - 23. Of course Giants are on pace for 92 wins. Wild card? Yeah right, Braves are chasing the Phillies (on pace for 101 wins) who are on pace for 95 wins. So unless the Braves have an epic fail in their final 70 games I think the only chance Rox have to get to the playoffs would be winning the division. Could Rox win 48 - 50 games in their final 71 games? In 2007 they went 45 - 26, 2008 36 - 35, 2009 43-28, and 2010 33 - 38. Don't think lightning is going to strike twice but Giants need to go 38 - 32 to win 90 games. Sure they could go through a rough spot and Rox could get hot again but it is a pretty steep road to get there!

Box Score Bytes - Game 91

2011-07-10T19:53:00.000-07:00

1) All Star Break...whoopee

Split 1st Half 2nd Half
2011 43-48
2010 49-39 34-40
2009 47-41 45-29
2008 39-57 35-31
2007 44-44 46-29
2006 44-43 32-43
2005 31-56 36-39
2004 36-51 32-43
2003 50-47 24-41
2002 42-46 31-43
2001 39-48 34-41
2000 45-40 37-40
1999 40-46 32-44
1998 37-52 40-33
1997 43-45 40-34
1996 42-44 41-35
1993 33-54 34-41

2) Chacin loves his offensive...NOT...gives up 1 run and four hits in seven innings and gets nothing to show for it

Box Score Bytes - Game 90

2011-07-09T23:49:00.000-07:00

1) Return of U-Ball?

2) Who replaced Helton with this machine of yesteryear?

3) Will Tulo get healthy?

4) Tracy gets win number 200 as a Rox

Box Score Bytes - Game 89

2011-07-08T22:47:00.000-07:00

1) Welcome to Mr Hyde/Dr Jekyll Hammel. Guy gets shelled last outing then pitches a decent game...I think it was the socks...he wore them high like U-Ball...

2) CarGo got back into the groove although it would appear his wrists are giving him discomfort.

3) Compare and contrast...Rox can't beat the Braves but are 85 - 59 against Nats/Expos in their history. Best average against any NL opponent...

Box Score Haiku - Game 88

2011-07-07T18:11:00.000-07:00

1) Swept...not exactly what the Rox needed right before the all star break...realize Rox have played in 171 four game series from 1993-2010 and have only been swept 16 times?

2) And now Blackmon is hurt? Good golly we are a walking MASH unit.

3) Hey at least Aaron Cook can be our designated pinch runner!

Box Score Bytes - Game 87

2011-07-06T22:47:00.000-07:00

1) Leave it to the Rox to make a guy batting under 0.200 a star...

2) Thanks for the memories but frankly Cook no longer belongs on a major league mound. No sinker no chance

Box Score Bytes - Game 86

2011-07-05T22:40:00.000-07:00

1) No CarGo and No Tulo - 'nuff said

2) Morale victory? We out hit Braves and still lost by two runs

3) 5 games in and Mark Ellis is batting 11 for 22...go figure