Yesterday's Recap

OK that was just not nice! You have an eight run lead, the other manager takes out key guys to rest them and yet the Roxs still can't get it done. Have the Rockies made a deal with the Baseball Devil? Because this is just getting to be painful. OK so I've given up on this season but can we just at least play respectable? This is getting embarrassing...

Yesterday's Recap

Different city same result. Had a late inning lead but just couldn't hang on. Tough when your best relievers are in the game and Herges and Buchholz can hold the lead.

2009?

Yesterday's Recap

Swept away in Philadelphia. What a miserable series. Funny thing is the two team that we swept in the playoffs are 13 - 1 against us this year. Guess paybacks are a bitch! On to Chicago and the best team in the NL...ughhh. Realize we have only won one road game this month? This team is just not good.

2009?

As the team is 20 - 33 and ten games out in mid May I would suggest that the Roxs are done this year. Not to be negative but this team is not good. Injuries have made us look like a AAA+ team. Beyond Cook there is no starting pitching to speak of and the bullpen is hit or miss with no consistency. Roxs are on pace to win 60 games! What does it all mean?

I would suggest we start building for 2009. In reality this team was a glorified .500 team last year when they went on their amazing run. I would suggest that going to the World Series was probably in hindsight the worst possible of all situations. The expectations were just too great for this young team. Plus throw in the fact that Boston showed every team in the league how to shut the team down made this year extra tough. In addition it is somewhat apparent that both Arizona and LA have better teams today and better prospects down on the farm. The Roxs need to stock more talent and no reason not to use this year to get that help.

Predictions:

1. Hurdle and his staff his gone after the All Star Game

2. O'Dowd is finally showed his walking papers

3. Holliday is traded down the stretch to a contender

4. Fuentes is traded down the stretch to a contender

5. Francis is injured and shut down for the season

6. Stewart moves to Left and Barmes becomes the regular 2B

7. Team rebounds with nothing to lose and win 70 games

8. Atkins finally gets his deal

9. Walt Weiss gets his chance to manage

10. Helton is finally traded!

Stat of the Week

Yesterday's Recap

Seven runs in the first two innings and that is all she wrote. What is up with the starter's not able to get out of the first couple of innings without getting some outs? If there was one area that might help the offense is if the starters could get the team into 3rd or 4th and allow the hitters to get adjusted. You allow the opposition 3 or 4 runs and the Roxs immediately start pressing. The offense has been pressing since day 1!

Stat of the Week

Another easy one after all the deep stuff. This week is slugging percentage or total bases divided by at bats. Walks are excluded. I wonder if Total Bases per At Bats means anything...hmm something to research

Slugging % Year
1. Walker .720 1997
2. Walker .710 1999
3. Helton .698 2000
4. Helton .685 2001
5. Walker .662 2001

Slugging % All Time
1. Walker .618
2. Burks .579
3. Galarraga .577
4. Helton .577

5. Holliday .555

He Was A Rockie?

Yesterday's Recap

A 20 - 5 beat down by the Phillies. Okay back to the Hurdle watch...how bad is this team going to get, how much World Series fan goodwill will be lost, when is the fire sale? I mean Hurdle gets a lot of kudos for his World Series run, but realistically this is a manager with a 462 - 541 (.461) 6 and half year career. Granted he took a bunch of rookies but when management sits around and discusses their investment is this really someone you want to guide your team. This isn't about injuries this is about pitching and not giving your team even a chance. This is about adjustments...every team has the Red Sox blueprint on how to shut the team down. Where is the fire, desire?

He Was a Rockie - David Nied

Not exactly an unknown but where did Nied go? Obviously he was the first player drafted by the Rockies in the Expansion Draft. He was from the pitching trust that is Atlanta in the early 90s. This was an arm to build a team around...14 - 18 career record with 46 starts spanning 4 years...done at 27. Best year was 1994 when he had a 9 - 7 record and 10 complete games! Wow, guess his story befits a team that as always had difficulty in finding pitching.

Rox Talk

Yesterday's Recap
One bright spot for the Rox's this year has to be Cook. When you figure it Cook has 7 of the Roxs wins. Ughhhhh!

Rox Talk

A 3-3 week against the Giants and Mets. Two teams that really aren't playing all that well...of course neither are the Roxs. The Roxs currently stand at 20-30. Ten games back from division leading D-backs in third place (ohhh we gained a game!). Currently 12-14 at home and 8-16 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 210-253 (expected wins is 21 versus historical wins at 23). On pace for 65 wins with 680 runs scored and 820 runs against. Roxs graphical wins (home in Purple, away in grey). 2008 has been a season of hot and cold streaks!

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):

Blah week, Holiday continues to be the only one capable of producing when it counts. Of course the majority of these WPAs came during the game where he hit a home run to tie it and then a single in the 13th to win it. Other than that pretty dismal. Only Buckholz in the pen and Cook on the mound are producing for the team.

Yesterday's Recap

You would think coming from behind the night before would serve as a good launching point but no,,,Francis gets rocked for 5 runs in the first and the Mets never looked back. A shame because it was a beautiful day at the ball park.

Yesterday's Recap

Another come from behind game with good guys coming out on top. Reynolds kept team in play. Holliday hit a homer to tie it and later singled in the winning run for a Roxs victory in bottom of 13th!

2008 Stat Leaders

If I Was Commissioner...

Updated standings for my alternative universe. Surprises - Both Florida teams atop the Eastern League Central Division, Houston making a run in the Midwest Division, and how bad the cellar dwellers are in the Pacific Division.

Stat of the Week

Yesterday's Recap

Bullpens turn to wreck havoc. Now that we are getting decent starting pitching the bullpen is starting to wear thin and not give the offense a chance. Last night we were down by a few runs and the bullpen comes in and gives up a couple more runs. Then in the ninth we get close yet lose by one. Had the bullpen not given up a cushion would Barmes have it a 2 run homer (which I believe would have won the game)? Girrrrr

Stat of the Week - OPS+
First off OPS is on base percentage plus slugging percentage. OPS+ then is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. Things of interest is that Todd Helton is Number 9 on the all time list with an OPS of 1.0070.

2007 Leaders (OBP SLG OPS and OPS+)

Torrealba .323 .376 .699 75
Helton .434 .494 .928 133
Matsui .342 .405 .747 87
Atkins .367 .486 .853 112
Tulowitzki .359 .479 .838 108
Holliday .405 .607 1.012 150
Taveras .367 .382 .749 89
Hawpe .387 .539 .926 129

He Was A Rockie?

Yesterday's Recap

Good solid game. Good bullpen and defense. Key double by Torrealba put the Roxs ahead. Third win in a row. We should beat these guys!

He Was A Rockie?

Well to continue last week's thread and that is personal favorite Roxs. Next to Kingery one of my all time favorite Roxs is Walt Weiss. Not exactly an unknown but a good all around player who played 14 seasons in the bigs for Oakland, Florida, Roxs, and Atlanta. He was the Rookie of the Year in 1988 for Oakland. He played for 4 years in Colorado. Played in 523 games batted .266 with a whooping 14 home runs. Certainly not a power guy but a solid shortstop. In his career he played in 3 World Series and won one. He know serves as an advisor to the Roxs.

Rox Talk

A 2-4 week against the D-backs (I hate those guys) and Twins (Interleague Play!). Still can't win in the desert and frankly at 1 - 8 have we padded the D-Backs record or are they that good? Before they played the Roxs they were swept in Chicago. It would appear they have our number this early in the season. The Roxs currently stand at 17-27. Eleven games back from division leading D-backs in third place. Currently 9-11 at home and 8-16 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 187-226 (expected wins is 18 versus historical wins at 20). On pace for 63 wins with 689 runs scored and 832 runs against. Roxs graphical wins (home in Purple, away in grey). 2008 has been a season of hot and cold streaks!

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):
Reynold second pitching performance was the big gainer of the week. Barmes continues to impress looking to have his stroke back that was there before falling down the stairs (or falling off an ATV!). O'Dowd should be commended for holding on to him. Guess he will be moving to 2B once Tulo comes back. Last week the Roxs hit the quarter post with 40 games in the books. Before the season began I looked at projections, so taking the player's marks at 40 games and projecting out to 162 game season to see how they are all progressing versus what we started with (see graphs below).

Well as much as the pitching has been to blame for the slow start I think the offensive has to take some responsibility. Really only Atkins and Holiday have been meeting expectations. On the positive side, Atkins was projected to score 87 runs but is on pace, based on his start, to score 97 while at the opposite end, Helton who projected to score 92 runs is on pace for 77! Obviously the two big holes is that Nix is no longer in the picture and Tulo is on the shelf. At this point the Roxs are on pace for 693 runs versus a projected run total of 825.

Well starting pitching hasn't been much better but overall pitching has at least stayed on pace based on projections. At the start of the season it was projected that pitching would allow 802 runs and currently they are on pace for allowing 851. Redman, Morales, and Wells are all gone with Rosa and Reynolds stepping in. Cook has been great and Francis and Jimenez awful. Hopefully with warmer temperatures the arms start keeping the team in contention so that when the bats wake up we make a run.

Yesterday's Recap

Whew a close one but Reynolds matched Hernandez until the Roxs bats woke and ended the perfect game. Fuentes made it interesting but a good win finally!

Yesterday's Recap

Twins in town. Interleague off and running. Hopefully a new look maybe a win. Unfortunately nothing there. Another disappointing lost...statistic of the week....Roxs haven't held a lead in 56 innings!

Interleague Play!

Yesterday's Recap

Painful and frustrating. I mean they cut it to within 2 runs then Fuentes comes in and gives up 3 runs so that when we get into the 9th we have a 5 run deficit. We are able to get two back and then have two runners on with Holliday at the plate. What do we get, a dribble by Holliday...game over. Ughhhh...with any hope we come home for a long homestand...maybe we can back into this thing!

Interleague

Yup the spectacle that is interleague play. It has definitely worn its welcome. Matchups just aren't all that exciting.

This weekends interesting matchups:

Really all the city or state series - NY, DC, LA, Ohio, Texas

This weekends duds:

All the other games...nothing...Arizona/Detroit? Colorado/Minnesota? Tampa Bay/St Louis? who cares...time to implement my divisions!

2007 Roxs MVP

Yesterday's Recap

Another loss to the D-Backs. Same old story. Starter gives up runs and despite a late inning surge just not enough to get over the top. It also doesn't help to leave the tying run on third in the top of the ninth. It drops the team to 10 below .500 and on pace for 60 wins...ughhhh!

2007 Roxs MVP (according to the Stats!)
So for all the stats here was the numbers:

Well Holliday takes the cake on this one leading in almost all three categories. Pitchers seem to get the raw deal in this whole total player rating. I mean for starters you only get in 1/5 of the games so I guess while you can be dominant you can only be as dominant in 30 something games while position guys slog it out everyday.

Stat of the Week

Yesterday's Recap

Francis is still winless and the Roxs got beat again by the D-Backs. At 6 - 1 against us, are the D-backs that good or the Roxs just padding their record? The team just looked listless. No desire, we need a Varitek moment. And what is a Varitek moment? Well back in the day (2004) the Red Sox were playing uninspiring baseball and the Yanks were in town putting a beat down on the hapless Sox. I can't replay this exactly but A-Rod and Varitek got into it and Varitek let out a good can of whup ass on A-Rod and the Yanks. The team got fired up and went on to win the World Series that year. What the Roxs need? A good snake ass whuppin...the D-backs have no fear about us, they are walking all over us...let's get fired up! Let's bean someone!

Stat of the Week - Win Shares

The last bit of player rating systems. Win shares considers statistics for players, in the context of their team, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Statistics are adjusted for park, league and era. It is a complicated formula with some arbitrary numbers and personally I think gives a lot wins to the offensive. The 2007 leaders were

Holliday 30

Tulo 25

Helton 24

Hawpe 22

Atkins 20

The top pitcher was Francis with 14 win shares. So if by definition 14 win shares is equal to about 5 wins then how does it all equate when Francis had 17 pitching wins?

He Was A Rockie?

He Was A Rockie? - Mike Kingery
Not to be confused with the radio announcer Jeff Kingery...Mike played for the Rockies during the 1994 and 1995 seasons. He was an outfielder who played Center for the majority of his Rockies career. He played in 224 games and batted .349 in 1994. Not really a power guy he was basically just the epitome of hustle. He played the game right as they say and was an early favorite of mine when I adopted the Roxs back in 93. Basically a journeyman player who started in KC, then to Seattle, then San Fran, then Oak, then the Roxs and finally finished his career in Pittsburg. Got to play in the Wild Card series with the Roxs and that was that.

Rox Talk

A 3-4 week against the Cards and San Diego. Could have been worst or could have been better (the team just isn't coming together, too many parts). Could have gained ground against the division leaders but we couldn't seem to beat the worst team in baseball (that would be the Padres). Give credit to Maddux for winning 350 but rookie Reynolds couldn't get it done on Mother's Day. I thought it was a bit early to be bringing up the pitcher of tomorrow but who am I to say? The Roxs currently stand at 15-23. Eight games back from division leading D-backs. Currently 7-10 at home and 8-13 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 164-198 (expected wins is 16 versus historical wins at 18). On pace for 64 wins with 699 runs scored and 793 runs against. Roxs graphical wins (home in Purple, away in grey).

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):

Ianetta was the big gainer of the week as well as Barmes. Couple of interesting stats discovered this week. In the Rockies games, for wins the team ERA is 2.59 and in losses it is 9.40 with 26 vs 43 walks in these same decisions. Wow when the pitching stinks it really stinks. Also another interesting stat is that with zero outs opposing teams have a 0.322 OBP with a OPS of 0.759 but with two outs the OBP increases to 0.384 and OPS increases to 0.825. That is crazy...it would appear we can't close the deal...

Yesterday's Recap

Yesterday's Recap
Well Jimenez pitched a heck of a game (11 K's!) but Mad Dog was on and he earned his 350th win! Only the 9th pitcher in major league history to reach this milestone and only the 3rd since 1911! He joins Spahn and Clemens. 14 more wins and he takes over from Spahn. Wow heck of a pitcher and congrats (and to Jimenez, that is how a big leaguer does it...only 340 something more wins).

Yesterday's Recap

Yesterday's Recap

Another fabulous pitching performance by Cookie yesterday against the former Cy Young winner Peavy. Guess Hawpe and Atkins own Peavy and he hasn't fared too well against the Roxs of late. Cook won his 6th game of the year. I see alot in Cook this year as we saw with Francis last year. Both were number 2 starters and both flourished in that role while Cook floundered in that roll last year and Francis is having trouble in the number 1 role this year. Beyond the first game of the year and maybe the first month I would doubt that you continually face the number 1 pitchers with other teams but perhaps you do? Interesting question to ponder to see how often number 1 starters meet after the first month of the season?

Interesting Rox Stat

Yesterday's Recap

A good win for the home team.  Not a great homestand but some positives.  Back on the road to San Diego and then to Phoenix.  Seems like we are always playing in Phoenix!  I hate Phoenix!  Go Roxs.

Interesting Rox Stat of the Week

I will expound on Monday but I was reviewing the wackiness that is baseball-reference.com and a stat caught my eye.  Basically in the Roxs wins they have an ERA of 2.5 and in their losses they have an ERA of 10!  In their losses they also have given up twice as many walks.  I guess when they lose they lose big!

If I Was Commissioner

Yesterday's Recap
Whew, looked like another great Cardinal pitching performance but finally in the 8th the Roxs struck. A triple by Holliday to get one run in, a terrific bat by Spilborghs, and another triple to score the tying and winning runs by Iannetta. Fuentes came in and shut the door. The Rockies WIN whoopee (and Cook wasn't pitching!)

If I Was Commissioner...

Updated alternative universe standings...the Atlantic is pretty competitive, the Central is weak, the Midwest has got a lot of bunched teams, and Pacific is got some top teams with bottom feeders (err that would be the Roxs!).

Stat of the Week

Yesterday's Recap

Another frustrating loss. Redman is probably done as a Rockie other than he might be thrown to the bullpen for long relief (which seems to be a necessity of late). Giving your opponent an early lead is just killing the team. Already pressing, the offensive is immediately put in another no win situation. They made a late run but just couldn't get there.

Looking back at last year's schedule I believe the Roxs were in the same boat as in their opponents were really lead leaders and it wasn't until they started facing similar competition did they end up winning more. So far this season their current opponents record is 160 - 137 (.539). Of course are the D-backs that good or is their record padded because they faced an awful Roxs team? Regardless all the teams they have faced have winning records except for SD and SF.

Stat of the Week - Runs Created

The Runs Created stat was invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. Multiple versions (or formulas) exist for this stat. In its simplest form it is (hits + walks * total bases) divided by at bats + walks. In an effort to to complicate things ;-) a stolen base version exists as well as a "technical" version along with a 2002 updated version. The 2002 version appears to be the most used as it places a player in context with his team. The problems with this formula is that players with extreme on base percentages and slugging percentages tend to high and the fact that other players have to get you home once the player is on base because obviously a player can't hit himself home (well except for HR). Finally runs created is not factored due to ballpark effects or eras in which the player played. Rockies RC leaders for 2007:

Holliday 142.2

Helton 121.1

Atkins 106.0

Hawpe 104.1

Tulo 101.1

He Was a Rockie?

Yesterday's Recap

From worst to first. Yup 6 months after winning the NL pennant the Roxs sit in the cellar with one of the worst records in baseball. Of course last year at this time we were also whining about the same thing as the Roxs also got out to a horrible start and then started to put it together. Unfortunately this year, the Roxs aren't quite as under the radar. They are a known entity, teams want to come in and beat the champs. Last night was a perfect example. The game was either teams to take and yet the Roxs lost out to a player who wanted it a bit more (as in Pujols heads up play in the ninth). If you are looking at games to turn it around last night was one to win, not let slip away!

He Was a Rockie? - Fred Rath

Two weeks ago I featured a former Rockie who had one at bat, well this week I feature a pitcher who pitched in 2 games for the Roxs back in 1998.  He pitched 5.3 innings.  He gave up one earned run and had two strikeouts.  That was his entire major league career.  Wow talking about a cup of coffee!

Rox Talk

A 2-4 week against Giants and LA. Tough week for the Roxs. Tulo is out until the All Star break. Morales been sent down to regain his form. Roster moves galore. Exciting game when Tulo went out. Ianetta came in to play third and Atkins moved to second. Basically if you look at the wins and losses (below) the last 3 wins have all been by Cook! Probably not a good thing. The Roxs currently stand at 12-19. Nine games back from division leading D-backs. Currently 5-8 at home and 7-11 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 134-169 (expected wins is 12 versus historical wins at 14). On pace for 63 wins with 700 runs scored and 820 runs against. Roxs graphical wins (home in Purple, away in grey).

Weekly WPA leaders (overall as well):
Pretty flat week. A lot of new names (Quintella, Grilli, Herrera, Newman, and de la Rosa). Four game series against the Central leaders, Cardinals and then onto San Diego. The Roxs need to start winning some weeks. Anything to get some more Ws!

Yesterday's Recap

Seeing the Roxs in person still didn't change the result. There were pluses but it is always difficult to spot your opponent 6 runs, then chase them down, but then continue to load the bases. The Dodgers had the bases loaded 4 times and they also double stole twice. The Roxs just never seemed in it even when they were close. Frustrating!

Yesterday's Recap

Well new month but not a new result. Cold night on the diamond. LA is rolling, Roxs are not!

April in the Rear View Mirror

Yesterday's Recap
Well yesterday's game was a microcosm of April. Sort of decent starting pitching, at least enough to allow the team to win, then a blown lead by the bullpen, followed by the inability for the team to score runs or at least hit while men are on base. Another loss. A miserable road trip at 1 - 5 especially when 3 games are against a team that isn't supposed to win more than 70 games this year. Meanwhile the D-backs won again and continue to be the class of the NL. The Roxs have dug a big hole!

April in the Rear View Mirror

Well at least April is over! One good thing...134 games to play! I imagine after the excitement that was last season the Roxs were anxious to be playing again. Maybe a bit too excited. The opening festivities probably didn't help much as the constant reminder of what they did continued to play on the big screen day after day. Think the D-backs didn't notice how they were humbled last October? Anyway baseball has a short memory and the Roxs need to move on and remember how they got there. Decent starting pitching, no errors, timely hitting, and good relief. What April showed was that Cook can pitch, defense needs some shoring up, hitting needs to be consistent, and relief is still the toughest job in baseball. Obviously last year showed that starting horribly isn't a death sentence but I don't think you can hope for a torrid finish to just get you into the playoffs again. What do the numbers say?

Historical Winning Percentage vs Pythagorean Winning Percentage:

Playing below average. Frightening thing is that they tend not to play well in May either. I do think though that only 10 of the first 28 games being at home was a big reason for the record woes. Coors Field is a tremendous home field advantage that does help the team get on track.

Runs Scored vs Runs Allowed Historical:

Well basically the Roxs didn't score alot of runs (below average) while allowing more runs than average. Based on projections (83 wins) scoring 825 runs and allowing 802 the Roxs just ain't scoring in April (the straight line is number of runs to reach 825 after 162 games)!

Team pitching is averaging about 5.2 inning a start, with about 3 K's per start, and averaging a game score of about 46 (remember 50 is a quality start). Team batting is averaging about 4 runs per game but leaving about 8 baserunners stranded and striking out about 7 times a game!

Interesting trend of this analysis is that last year at 10-16 the Roxs scored 10% of their plate appearances and 30% of the runners that did get on base scored. This year at 11-17 the Roxs again scored 10% of their plate appearance (114 runs and 1,145 plate appearances) and scored 30% of the runners that made it safely (114 runs and ~380 base runners).