Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 12

The Week That Was
A 4-2 week against the Angels and A's. The Roxs currently stand at 40-35. Seven and half games back from division leading Los Angeles in third place. Currently 17-15 at home and 23-20 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 387-356 (expected wins is 40 versus historical wins at 35). On pace for 86 wins with 829 runs scored and 767 runs against.

An impressive mid-season run! That just keep on going. They have moved into the Wild Card talk with this improbable run. With a Dodger series looming a chance does exist to move within striking distance of the division but let's be serious...the Dodgers get Manny back on Friday and the Rox barely gained on them when he was gone for 50 games. Unless team chemistry suddenly explodes I think the Dodgers will win 100 games easy. If the Rox can keep at it I think the Wild Card is within reach. With the D-backs and Padres going nowhere those are some easy wins compared to what the Central and East has to deal with. I think 85 - 90 wins is possible. The Rox road schedule has been brutal having played the most road games of any team. That means post All Star break we will be home rather than doing the road trip death spiral. If our starter's arms don't fall off I think we have a chance.

By the way sweeping Holliday away was especially sweet for me. I wonder what Boras has got to say to him now. Think he will even come close to the 85 million we offered up? NOT...good luck Matt, greedy bastard!

Monday, June 22, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 11

The Week That Was
A 5-1 week against the Rays and Pirates. The Roxs currently stand at 36-33. Nine and half games back from division leading Los Angeles in third place. Currently 17-15 at home and 19-18 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 352-328 (expected wins is 37 versus historical wins at 32). On pace for 85 wins with 826 runs scored and 770 runs against.

Wow what another awesome week! But you know they played 5 - 1 baseball and only gained one game on the Dodgers! Certainly the Wild Card is in play. What do the Rox do? I think the Rox are going to try and unload Atkins for maybe a bullpen arm especially with Corpas going down.

Amazing what some positive energy can do for a team psyche. This team looks entirely different from what we saw for the first 50 or so games. I mean this team has an attitude and a swagger. I was at the game against Pittsburgh on Friday night and they truly never look like they were going to lose. They just get tacking on runs and at no time during the evening did I think they were going to lose. Amazing....

Monday, June 15, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 10

The Week That Was
A 7-0 week against the Brewers and Mariners. The Roxs currently stand at 31-32. Ten and half games back from division leading Los Angeles in third place. Currently 12-14 at home and 19-18 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 310-304 (expected wins is 32 versus historical wins at 29). On pace for 80 wins with 815 runs scored and 780 runs against.

Wow what a week! Really it isn't too much of a surprise especially when you consider that for most of the year the Rox's offense run total has been greater than what the pitcher's have allowed the opponents to score (granted Rox have scored a lot of runs in blow outs and have been held to some low run totals in their losses but it still indicates that the Rox can score runs). Up until this point they simply were playing below the mean. Now I expect that they will probably play .500 ball for the rest of the season. I don't think they are as good as they were over the last 11 games nor do I think they are as bad as the first 7 weeks of the season. The real question will be what happens after the All Star Break...

As a Rox fan I think it is fantastic that they have clawed back to some respectability and are almost back to five hundred baseball. As a baseball fan I have to be realistic and look at their 11 game win streak and after winning eleven games in a row all they gained on LA was a pathetic 4 games (? WTF). They still stand 10.5 out! Whoopee they inched closer to a Wild Card but will they be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. I mean realistically if they stayed bad you could rid yourself of Atkins, Marquis, and Street and get some decent payback. Now if the Rox sell and they are sort of in contention with the Wild Card they'd get tremendous backlash from the fans. But what good is keeping these guys? Build for the future. This ain't your year...LA is running away with it.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 9

The Week That Was
A 4-3 week against the Astros and Cardinals. The Roxs currently stand at 24-32. Thirteen and half games back from division leading Los Angeles in fifth place. Currently 9-14 at home and 15-18 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 283-278 (expected wins is 28 versus historical wins at 26). On pace for 69 wins with 819 runs scored and 804 runs against.

So is Tracy that much better, Hurdle that much worse, or has the team finally found its identity? Hard to believe what we watched in St Louis (or is St Louis that bad?) came from the team that only one once in Houston. The crazy thing is that this team has some offense. It has scored 5 or more runs 26 times having won 18 times but then in the other 30 games (scoring 4 runs or less) it has won only 6 times. It is either feast or famine for the Roxs.

As I predicted last week it was an up week for pitching so we ended up doing well. What will this week bring? Who knows but consistency would be nice...

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Odds and Ends

Just some odds and ends that I came across....hmmmm

Yahoo Sports

"The new Yankee Stadium is a lot of things that the New York Yankees expected when they planned it. No one fathomed it would be the park that could break Coors Field’s stranglehold on the single-season home run record of 303 in 1999. More than a quarter the way through the season, the 87 home runs in 23 games at new Yankee Stadium have set a pace that extrapolates to 306."

Holy cow you know I track Rox stats but 303 homeruns hit at Coors Field in 1999!  That is just an amazing hard to fathom number.  

"Here are the facts. There have been 104 teams to make the playoffs in the 13 full seasons of the wild-card era. Exactly three of them, or 2.9 percent, were worse than five games below .500 when June began. Here are the three outliers:
1. 2005 Astros (19-32 start; 89-73 final record).
2. 2007 Cubs (22-29; 85-77).
3. 2007 Yankees (22-29; 94-68).
This is very bad news for the Indians, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates, Astros, Diamondbacks and Rockies. One word of advice: sell. Better to make players available now, especially for players on the last year of deals. A four-month rental has more value than a two-month rental."

Well I didn't think the Rox had a chance but this kind of confirms it.  The question is when do the Rox recognize it and start dismantling for the future...

"So how about this? Clint Barmes is two-for-three going first to third on a single, a perfect seven-for-seven scoring from second on a single, and he scored from first the only time someone doubled. According to Bill James’ formula, that makes him a plus-13 base runner, the best in baseball."

At least one player is good for something...

Monday, June 1, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 8

The Week That Was
A 2-4 homestand against the Dodgers and Padres. The Roxs currently stand at 20-29. Thirteen and half games back from division leading Los Angeles in fifth place. Currently 9-14 at home and 11-15 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 255-238 (expected wins is 23 versus historical wins at 22). On pace for 66 wins with 787 runs scored and 843 runs against.

The Hurdle era is over. For over 1,162 games we watched this man at least try to keep a positive spin on things. A winning percentage of 0.461 and an average division finish of 4 pretty much speaks the truth. I am not a Hurdle fan but I admit he was dealt a crappy hand and did the best that he could. Had he not gone to the World Series, I am sure that in 2007 he would have been shown the door. Only through good will was he not shown the door last season. I think after 7 years the player's just got tired of his mantras. He did shepherd GenR into the big leagues and history will probably look and say he got what he could out of team that really didn't have much (a lot of emotion and luck got them to the Series but Boston really show them for what they were...a glorified .500 team that just got hot). Pitching was never consistent enough, still couldn't figure out the disparity between playing at Coors and winning on the road, and in 2007 I think he knew enough just to get out of the way and let the team play. In the end we will always have September and October 2007 (which as Rox Fans we should just cherish because at the time it was awesome)!

According the graph we should have good pitching for the upcoming week. Which is probably good because we start an eleven game road trip to Houston, St Louis, and Milawaukee. Yikes a tough romp through the Central's best teams. Could be ugly...
No May Flowers, a Hot June?

A 12 - 17 month and a the Rox saw the Dodgers gain 8.5 games. Rox actually won more games on the road then at home this month. Really think for the Rox to compete they have to blow teams out at home and steal some on the road. Rox are on pace to win 2 more games on the road then their historic average and 13 games below their average at home. Maybe Tracy can turn things around?

- Beyond Marquis pitching continues to be awful. Cook and Jimenez have been terribly inconsistent and de la Rosa and Hammel are not the answer. Street has shown the ability to close but much like Fuentes is prone to just falling apart. Corpas...one season wonder!
- The offense either scores or it doesn't. Team batting average is 0.249...and you play at Coors...turn the Humidor off...please
- Atkins hitting 0.190 and Tulo at 0.226 (another one season wonder, thankfully he plays a good SS!)

- Hawpe and Helton are the offense.
- A lot more home games are upcoming
- New manager

I think stability will be better. When will Atkins be unloaded? Will June's eleven game road trip put the final nail in the coffin? Are we looking at another rebuilding year in 2010? Will Helton remain a Rox Star?