Thursday, July 31, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Well off to baseball reference where on their box score page they show the amount of pitches thrown in an inning along with the number of runs. By taking this data and plotting the number of pitches per inning, the runs scored for that number of pitches, and annotating in a running log how often this number of pitches occur in an inning, I was able to come up with the number of pitches thrown in 2008 by Rockies pitchers and what is the average number of pitches thrown to allow for one run in an inning (i.e., a 12 pitch inning occurred 81 times and a total of 12 runs were scored when 12 pitches were thrown in an inning or a rate of 0.12 runs). This is through Game 108 and I am missing about 7 runs (end of the season I will go back and tighten this up).
Graphically all this data looks like this:
The final plot shows the rate at which runs are scored. So for instance 26 pitches in an inning occurred 17 times and a total of 32 runs were scored. Thus giving a rate of 1.88 runs scored when 26 pitches are thrown. If you plot this rate you get this...
A relatively nice curve that has a Rsquare of about 0.79 (if you throw out two of the outliers you get upwards of 0.86). If you take the equation and solve for 1 you get approximately 20.6 pitches.
So there you have it...it does appear has you throw more pitches in an inning the likely of runs being scored increases. Follow on questions would be 1) what would the major league curve look like accounting for every pitch? and 2) could you establish pitcher effectiveness based on this (i.e., Cook has thrown 2,134 pitches this year, divided by 20.6 would indicate he should have given up 104 runs but presently he is at 64 allowed also he has averaged 13.9 pitches an inning which would equate to a rate of 0.47 runs per inning, he's pitched 154 innings so that equates to about 72 runs...)
Monday, July 28, 2008
Baker has been an animal the last two weeks and U-ball too. These two have thrown the Roxs on their backs and said let's make a run. With 56 games to go (6 back), do the Roxs have enough time to catch the D-bags? Starting pitching has been good. The last two weeks have seen the offense go into overdrive and the relief corps has been shutting teams down. Lots of games against the teams ahead of us. Will there be time? My guess is that the trade deadline will come and go and the Roxs will stand pat. Maybe Atkins will be dealt for a pitcher? It would allow Stewart to take over third and Baker a permanent spot at first until of if Helton comes back. Taveras would be a good throw in too as I believe Spilborghs and Fowler could take over center. An exciting time in baseball!
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
I whole heartening disagree with Woody's comments. Now is the time to deal Holliday especially fresh off his All Star blast and his recent hot streak. Why trade our hottest property? One reason would be Todd Helton. Helton, who is currently 35, and signed through 2011 makes up almost 25% of the current Rockies payroll. Holliday who is 28 wants a six year deal. If you look at Helton's statistics, he peaked during the 2000 - 2001 years, when he was...27!
Baseball research has shown that players tend to peak in their late 20s. Signing Holliday now to a long term contact is not baseball smart. Sure he would still produce for the next 2 - 3 years but then steadily decline to what Helton has become. A longtime Rocky whose time has passed. The Roxs don't need more salary anchors.
From a fan (and heart's) standpoint watching a player become a star in your own backyard is great but what would Denver rather have? A star (like Helton) or a World Series title. Today's free agency has killed the one player, one team concept. Loyalty to a team is has tenous has a summer afternoon rain shower in Denver. World Series titles are won by complete teams.
Due to the Boras Factor, I don't think Holliday has ever become a true fan favorite. His comments over the years have never tended to indicate that his preference is to stay here. Why doesn't Holliday have a chant like Tulo? Holliday has never embraced the city. Fans like characters and a little personality. Holliday is a nice guy but I think most people in Colorado knew long ago that he wasn't a long term guy.
In the end, Colorado baseball fans should embrace the small market mentality and root for the team, not its players. To win in today's baseball market it is all about talent. Teams like the Rockies can't afford to make long term financial mistakes (i.e. Hampton and Helton) with their heart. Management needs to ride their young players (i.e. pre free agents) to a playoff or World Series title and then sell to rebuild. Restock your farm and build to another title run. Sure it isn't sexy, like the Yankees or Red Sox, but they can afford to pay their way to the playoffs each year and also can afford long term mistakes. Embrace the team not the players.
Finally think of what the Roxs could buy for $120 million over the next 6 years. Last year signaled the blue print to win at altitude. Build your starting pitching from within (no high end free agent pitcher will ever come here), rebuild a pitcher or two from the scrap heap, spend that Holliday money on a bullpen to die for because starter's are only going to last 5 - 6 innings, and finally keep bringing up the youngsters who are hungry for free agent money (make sure they can play defense!). Who needs Holliday? Keep Atkins at 3B, Tulo at SS, Barmes at 2B, Baker at 1B. Let Stewart play everyday at LF, Fowler at CF,and Hawpe in RF.
Baseball is a team sport; big money stars rarely bring championships to their towns especially small market teams. Would you rather have World Series or Holliday memories?
Monday, July 21, 2008
Amazing what a week of wins! Nice sweep. Have to admit Holliday is putting together a nice season. Too bad everyone else is in the gutter!
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Can you believe EY, Hammonds, and Cirillo were All Stars? Holliday and Helton are the only ones with homers. Burks has the only triple and Bichette has the only double.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Sigh, the week before we have an offensive explosion and this week in NY we get shutout in back to back games and in one game we get only one hit. For a team which generated so much offense last year it is maddening that the hits just aren't coming. Alas last year was last year and teams that tend to progress forward in one year tend to come back to earth the next but in a year when the division is certainly winable it is tough to shallow that we missed a chance to repeat. Big question will be who is here and gone in August. My guess is that Fuentes and Podsednik are gone, perhaps Herges as well. I also think Holliday will be here this year and probably get dealt this winter. We shall see and is this the end of Helton?
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
At the 5th inning the Marlins had like a 99% chance of winning, the the Roxs crept back then went down again then crept back and boom the 9th inning hit and we took the lead and won. They were down 9 runs! It was a 35 run affair that took under 4 hours. Marlins were the only 5th or 6th team since 1900 to score 17 runs and lose. Wow what a game.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Friday, July 4, 2008
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Runs Scored vs Runs Allowed Historical:
Yikes where the heck is the offense. It is gone, fallen into a black hole. Only 112 runs scored in 27 games and allowed 123 runs. I guess if teams tend to return to average then eventually we are going to score runs (?). As you can see the offense is really fading while the pitching seems to be holding up their end of the bargain.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Oday I will continue the rant against managers this week and I will go with the manager who barely stopped long enough for a cup of coffee. Jimbo stayed with us for one year, 1999, and compiled a 72 - 90 record. A manager who was brought in to replace Don Baylor (our inaugural manager) and someone who had won a world series with Florida was supposed to take us to the promise land. A career 1294-1313 manager (including his record with Detroit) this was a no nonsense chain smoking real time baseball manager. He almost took the Pirates to the promise land (if it hadn't been for the Braves!), managed a winner out of Florida, and then took the Tigers there. Unfortunately he came in at the peak of nintendo ball at Coors. The Roxs that year scored 906 runs (!) but gave up an even more amazing 1028 (OMG!). Needless to say one year of that was enough for any manager with a brain. Citing burnout the Roxs and Leyland parted after the one year. Buddy Bell came in and then was followed by Hurdle. 4 managers over 16 years and only one who really understand baseball at altitude...Baylor!