Monday, October 27, 2008

Rox Talk - World Series

World Series Update
Still playing Game 5. What a mess...rain, rain, everywhere. Whoever wins this series certainly won't have the umpires to thank. I can think of a couple of instances, the miscall at 1B between Moyer and Howard, Rollins getting hit in the jersey and not being given first base, the goofy strike out call and then the Ray batter getting ball 4, and Rollins getting tagged at third and being called safe. I think Joe Morgan said last night on the radio that the calls have been split 3-3 but still alot of mistake calls that did ultimately lead to runs scored.

Update:  Boy is Selig the unluckiest man in the world.  Everytime baseball tries it takes 8 steps backwards.  I mean first it was the all-star blunder now this...man they say baseball and American history go hand in hand and let's hope next week goes smoother than this!

Rox Update
Well the word is out that Holliday is officially on the trading block. A bit surprising as it seems that for the right price Atkins is also available. Pitching is king but losing 196 runs when the teamed underachieved this year could be a bit much. Granted Stewart appears ready but you are counting on Fowler moving up (see Nix last year) and Helton coming back stronger than ever (highly unlikely at 36?). Appears Vizcaino had some alcohol issues and he still has one year left on his deal.

Management has made some talk that last year's team came unglued during spring training when they couldn't get Holliday signed for a home town discount. Think they want to go through that again? Personally I would keep him and Atkins and try for the division. If at the All Star break there no improvement then unload (granted you won't get as good of prospects but at least your not entering a new year with loads of untested youth). Another thing to note is the economy and professional sports. My guess is that contracts might be hard to find next year. If I was a betting man, I will say attendance will plummet next year. Small market teams will certainly be a bit more cautious in trying to sign anyone long term. I think the Roxs would do well to get rid of someone who is all about the money. The money Holliday would command would certainly not hand tie the Roxs long term (see Helton think we should give Holliday a 6 year deal?). Lets face it, the Roxs spend like a small market so we shouldn't be surprised but they better do better with pitching or the boo birds will come out whining that we are simply player development for the big boys.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Rox Talk - The Playoffs

Not much in the way of actual Rox talk since the end of the season. Fall out continues on the dugout changes. Really not a whole lot on the coaches but seems there is quite a lot of bad blood on the strength conditioning coach. Little odd. I think ultimately that a manager type will play second fiddle to Hurdle so if the Roxs start slow next season there will be an immediate hook and replacement of our not so favorite manager.

On to playoff talk. Now that all the preliminaries are over let's get on to the World Series. Bit surprised by the dominance of the Rays (although they got a tired White Sox team and an injured tired Red Sox team). HTis should give all the small market teams some hope even though it appears to take on average 10 years of good drafting to make a quality playoff ready team. The Rays certainly showed some resilience after a devastating Game 5 lost (see below):
The Rays were 7 outs away and were at the time 99.4% likely to win the game. So much for statistics. For the third time in a row it looked like the Sox were going to do it but no magic in Game 7 this year (although the bases were loaded in the 8th with Drew at the plate). While over in the senior circuit the Phillies dismantled the Dodgers who made mincemeat of the Cubs. Amazing how one series can be so different from the other. One thing I have to call BS on is the continued love for Manny. Everyone on the radio kept falling over themselves on how great Manny is when he is behind in the count. Well if you check out baseball reference his average is 0.194 with 0-2 (0.173 NL avg), average 0.216 with 1-2 (0.187), and average 0.265 with 2-2 (0.202). With 2 strikes he is batting 0.226 (0.185). Of course with and 3-0 count he is only batting 0.165 (0.290). So whatever...

So with the Phillies heading to Tampa for an East Coast showdown what can we expect? History has shown that Tampa hasn't been too good for Philly franchises having the Flyers and Eagles both being defeated by Bay area teams recently. Obviously this match up doesn't have alot of "must see" TV although I do think that these are representative teams that deserve to be there (the Cubs probably more so in the NL). Since both teams pounded there opponents, my guess is that we will have close games decided by monstrous home run. Teams are pretty evenly matched. Both have good starters although Tampa probably has a better 4th starter (and no Moyer). Phillies bullpen has been better in the playoffs (see Game 5 above). Offensives have both been on. Tampa has the advantage of being the home team (thanks to Hurdle) and yet Philly probably has a more passionate fan base. Tampa won the best division in baseball and yet Philly has 2 reigning NL MVPs (possibly a third...). AL has been dominant over the years yet the Rays are an extremely young team who has to come back from an emotional ALCS. Phillies had a long wait and might come out flat (i.e. like the Roxs). The Rays lose a bat when going to Philly. Manual vs Maddon? Cheesesteak vs Fishstick(?) Franchise with the most losses of any professional team vs team with its season's first winning record? Liberty Bell vs Pirate Ship?

Bottom Line: Phillies in 6

Monday, October 13, 2008

Rox Talk - Men On Base

"We just sit around talking about the old times, she says when she feels like crying she starts laughing thinking about glory days..." - Bruce Springsteen

Yup talking about the last season of Rox's baseball seems that we really just don't want to forget the 2007 season. I mean 90 wins, NL pennant, a shot at the Series...but now we have a bitter aftertaste that is the 2008 season.
So what the heck is this? Well it is a plot of 4 things; 1) dark blue line is projected wins, 2) yellow line is runs scored as a percentage of men on base, 3) light blue line is men left on base per plate appearance, and 4) pink line is runs per plate appearance. I plotted these in 2007 and then plotted again based on 2008 data. Put them together and the plot above is what you get.

Obviously these are cumulative. Projected wins settles in around Game 60. In 2008 the Roxs were projected to win about 84 wins throughout the season and only got to 90 based on their unbelievable finish. 2008 they reached a highpoint of about 76 games with 20 to play. The next graph is the yellow one or runs scored as a percentage of men on base. This value takes the runs scored divided by the amount of men that made it to a base (it doesn't subtract men who are then picked off, caught stealing, or doubled up). So in 2007, 36.9% of the men put on base crossed home plate while only 34.6% did in 2008. What was interesting was that if you look at the 2007 graph the Roxs got better through the season while in 2008 we basically plateaued.

The third graph is the light blue line and this is men left on base per plate appearance. The amazing thing about this graph is how constant 2007 and 2008 were. In 2007, 19.3% of men were left on the table and in 2008, 19.1%. It seems that 8 men left on base is the Rox's norm. Finally the pink line is the amount of runs scored per plate appearance. Again it should be noticed the upward trend for 2007 and the plateau that was 2008. 13.2% scored in 2007 while only 10.6% in 2008 (6,498 plate appearances in 2007 versus 6,312 plate appearances in 2008). What can we conclude from all this? Well 2007 saw the Roxs score 860 runs and in 2008 we eeked out 747 runs!

Did this exercise last year but here are the breakdowns by month for 2007.

AVERAGE

G

PA

AB

R

H+BB

HBP+RE

LOB

April

26

40

34

4

13

1

8

May

28

38

34

4

12

1

7

June

27

40

36

6

14

1

8

July

24

39

34

6

13

1

7

August

29

41

36

6

14

1

8

Sept

29

41

36

6

14

1

8


2008

AVERAGE

G

PA

AB

R

H+BB

HBP+RE

LOB

April

28

41

36

4

13

1

8

May

28

38

34

4

12

1

7

June

27

38

33

4

12

1

7

July

27

40

34

6

14

1

8

August

28

40

34

5

13

1

8

Sept

24

37

33

4

11

1

6


It would seem to me if the Roxs could average 6 runs a month they tend to do pretty good. Again I am somewhat amazed by the consistency between the 2007 and 2008 years at the plate especially the left on base.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Management = Clueless

So the Roxs upper management shows their displeasure with a dismal season by firing three coaches.  Whoopee the coaches they let go didn't cause the team to tank to 74 wins.  To hold onto the two coaches, Hurdle and Apodaca, that had the most to do with the Roxs miserable year is just unconscionable.  How can someone own a team and allow such poor management take place.  I mean the team that went to the World Series basically came back intact and yet they could only manager 74 wins (16 games worst then the previous year!).  Ughhh I give Hurdle until April 20th, 2009.  When the Roxs start out at 0 - 11 having lost to the D-backs, Philly's, Cub's, and Dodgers.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Rox Talk - Season Summary

Well after a 74 - 88 finish how did this all look based on some preseason predictions? Well looking back to April, Vegas O/Us for the division was the D-backs at 87.5, Dodgers at 86.5, the Padres at 84.5, and the Roxs at 83.5. Based on returning Win Shares and adding in their off season additions the D-backs were at 78, Roxs at 81, Padres at 68, LA at 83 and the Giants at 71. So what was the final tally?

So for last year based on the team's final standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

Arizona

90

72

712

732

79

0.88

Colorado

90

73

860

758

90

1.00

San Diego

89

74

741

666

89

1.00

LA

82

80

735

727

82

1.00

SF

71

91

683

720

77

1.09


2008 Standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

LA

84

78

700

648

87 (83)

1.04

Arizona

82

80

720

706

82 (78)

1.00

Colorado

74

88

747

822

74 (81)

1.00

SF

72

90

640

759

68 (71)

0.94

San Diego

63

99

637

764

68 (68)

1.08


Well Vegas did awful but the Win Share method did fairly well. Boy the Dodgers really helped their cause with pitching. And well the Roxs just couldn't score. Based on early projections based on Chone, ZiPs, Pecota, and Marcels the Roxs had a spread of wins from 77 to 93. The average was 84 wins. I predicted an 85 win season finishing second to the Dodgers. Looking at expectations the injury bug certainly hurt the Roxs with Helton and Tulo missing considerable games. The big hole was 2B where we had 84 runs scored last year thanks to Matsui and this year the patchwork at the 2-hole only produced 65 runs. The lowest predicted run score was 770 runs!

For as much griping as there was for the pitching staff this year, I really think it was the offense that really underperformed. Had the Roxs scored 800 runs they would have won 4 - 5 more games. Oh yeah and if the Roxs weren't 3 - 15 against the D-backs we might have been a bit more respectable too.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

If I Was Commissioner...

Well here is the final standings in my alternative universe. As stated way back when, the division winners and the next two best teams get the nod. Therefore Round 1 in my playoff scenario would be the Rays vs. the Yankees and the Red Sox vs. the Phillies in the Eastern League and the Angels vs. the White Sox and the Cubs vs. the Brewers in the Western League. Basically just missing the Dodgers from the real world playoffs. Have to figure out some way to simulate games to determine the winners. Stay tuned....