Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
Monday, December 7, 2009
The Rox management team should be commended. They earned alot more wins then what they are paying. Essentially this is because they haven't delved into the free agent market and they have a lot of WAR coming from players in their pre-arbitration days. Tulo and Jimenez are outright steals right now! It will be interesting to see during the next union bargaining whether players try to change how they can bargain when they first make the big leagues. Small market clubs are simply jettisoning players once they become arbitration eligible. Look at Atkins, he is 28 and should be coming into his attractive payroll period and yet the Rox just threw him aside for younger cheaper talent. It is a strong possibility that Atkins is done and probably will never see $7 million a year again. Now of course he could have signed a long term deal too so a player does have that option...stability over free agent big bucks...you better not swan dive during that pre free agency year!
Back to WAR...I wonder if there is any predictive value to it? WARNING: WAR is only suppose to show the previous year...no one claims that it is predictive. Below is a graph plotting the Rox wOBA vs WAR since 2002 (min of 60 plate appearances). As I mentioned this really shouldn't tell me anything because position played and defense ability does factor into WAR in the transition from wOBA but what the heck...with excel and a new tool I just found I can do whatever I want! (it is my web page).
Of the numbers using my estimating tool I would think Tulo and CarGo might have better seasons then what their wOBA says. Rox do have some talent, the big question is 2010 going to be like 2009 or 2008? Will expectations once again bite?
Monday, November 30, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
OK for the most part the Rox have decided to become the NL version of the Minnesota Twins. That is, develop your minor league system, field the majority of your big league squad with that talent, and when they become free agents trade them away for more minor league stock. A decent model to follow since there will always be big money teams eager to throw big dollars at proven commodities while sending along unproven minor leaguers. So if this is the case and you have a loaded (or competitive?) minor league system, then shouldn't eventually your major league team see spikes in their winning percentage? If your loaded AA wins the Texas League championship, then shouldn't that same talent be fielded and face similar players in the big leagues, eventually? Of course if your AA team stinks perhaps you have no big league talent and thus they never reach the big leagues but then you would still have an age gap for a few years against those teams...Then of course there are those teams that develop talent but not enough at the right time and end of trading it away (think of the Pirates trades over the last few years, had they developed together who knows...)
So figure each year there are 8 playoff spots. Pencil in the big spenders...the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants (?), and Dodgers as perennial playoff teams that take five or six of those spots. That leaves just two or three teams from the non-big spenders teams that have a chance to get to the dance. Now let's assume that those remaining 22 teams, about 8 are just plain poorly managed by the front office (i.e., Nats, Baltimore, Royals, and Reds for instance) and don't have a clear plan on how to win now or in the future so that leaves about 14 teams with some clue. Now if those 14 teams follow the model of raising good talent from within and having a competitive minor league system then don't you think that looking at the minor league records and tracking the success among those other teams would suggest that as this talent matures you should be competitive among those non big spenders and thus get that hand me down playoff spot? The graph above attempts to show some sort of correlation to a minor league record and major league output. Does minor league winning percentage in past lead to major league success in the future? All minor league percentage includes rookie ball and short season records and the A, A+, AA, AAA is the records of just the big 4 minor league clubs.
There does seem to be about a 3 - 4 year difference between a peak in the minors to a peak in the big leagues. The biggest example would be 2003 peak in the minors to the 2007 big league record. The 2003 had Holliday and Hawpe and a young Jimenez. If we assume that the 2007 big league squad overachieved then the next peak was in 2005 which again had Holliday, Hawpe, Jimenez, and added Tulo and then you have 2009 winning record.
Since 2003 - 2004, the Rox minor league system has consistently faired well. Depth in the minors can't be bad. Obvious alot of talent moves in and out of the minors...some of this talent succeeds, some fails, some remain in limbo, some are fast movers, others take time to develop. I think another problem is you need talent to mature together (think Pittsburgh) and for this success to continue then talent must come in waves. If you think Holliday, Hawpe, Atkins were Group 1, then this was followed by Tulo, Iannetta, Smith and then followed by Fowler and Young. As older talent moves on then good talent exists to take there place. I doubt whether one can truly quantify a correlation but for non big spenders it feels good to think that young talent will eventually mature and sneak into the playoff picture once in a while (and even win!).
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Monday, October 19, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
2) Maybe now the national media will look at this team with some respect. We won 92 games and we made the reigning world series champs earn it (unlike the Cards, Twins, and Red Sox...who just laid down)
3) Can we get a ESPN Sunday night game of the week next year? Please
4) Funny that the Phillies bullpen was its weakness and yet it our bullpen that coughs it up...my respect for Mariano Rivera grows daily.
5) This year's divisional series will be remembered for closer melt downs...Papelbon, Nathan, and Street
6) Looks like no winners in the Holliday trade...Holliday boots in LA and Street boots it down the stretch...although CarGo had a coming out party this week!
7) Think Giambi will wear purple stripes next year?
8) Have we seen the last of Atkins, Hawpe, and Barmes?
9) Mr Rox October...Yorvit!
10) It was a good season...well played...frustrating...hopefully something to grow on for next year
2) Umpire behind the plate, Jerry Meals, was frustrating to say the least. Lot of pitches thrown by Colorado were borderline to me and not so much for Philadelphia. Also the 9th inning missed call at the plate with Utley was botched. Big difference if there were two outs with Rollins on third versus one out with runners on 1st and 3rd with Howard at the plate. Hate to see a game decided on a botched call (of course I am sure San Diego sees it the same way...guess calls average out over the years).
3) Betancourt was huge in the 8th...those last two K's especially against Stairs could have been the back breaker...
4) CarGo collected another three hits last night...can we clone him and put him as our lineup?
5) How disappointing was the foul out by Giambi and pop out by Tulo in the bottom of the ninth? Tracy played to win and had the right pieces in play to steal one, too bad the Rox couldn't get it right (or follow the script).
6) Hawpe has a defensive replacement as part of a double switch in the ninth? Bit questionable...especially with his weak ground out to second to start the inning...
7) Using Madson in the 7th to get out of the inning? Gutsy call by Manuel...especially if Lidge had blown it in the ninth
8) There was a Greg Vaughan jersey sighting...I don't remember him playing for the Rox let alone someone actually having his jersey!!! (Number 99)
9) Okay Denver isn't a hot bed for advertising dollars according to TBS but starting a game when it is 10 PM in one of the competing teams is just wrong. I mean the game ended at 2:15 Philly team...who in there right mind would still be awake? It is a real injustice to the players who played 162 games to get to this point then have to slug it out playing at crazy times and cold weather. If Philly wins out...good luck traveling out to LA for Thursday's game!
10) Surreal experience for me...my first ever postseason game...loved it but felt sort of disconnected. See comment 1, by game time I was just shredded...and to be honest when the clock hit midnight I wanted either team to win and not have to face extra inning...:-(
Thursday, October 8, 2009
2) Boy is CarGo swinging a hot playoff bat! Another 3 hits today!
3) Can we time warp the sixth inning? Two days in a row the sixth is our starter's downfall.
4) Is Cook the greatest Rox of them all?
5) Little bothersome that we get one stinking run in back back bases loaded innings
6) How many pitchers is Tracy going to use? Situational pitching in the playoffs is starting to go a bit overboard.
7) Rox extend series to Game 4 at home...I imagine the Rox would rather not make the trip back to Philly on Sunday night
8) How much snow are we going to get on Saturday night...is it good or bad that Hammel was born in Greenville, SC
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
2)Torrealba isn't the answer...forget streaks...put someone who can hit lefties and someone who can throw out a base runner (Philly stole 3 bases). When the pitcher successfully steals and Ryan Howard (the linebacker) attempts, then they don't respect you!
3) Only 6 hits? and five strikeouts...not a good day at the ballpark
4) To win this series Rox are going to have to get to the bullpen...allowing a complete game isn't the answer
5) Put CarGo at the top, slide Fowler to 2nd, and play Smith...Hawpe is done and Atkins isn't a Rox next year so play Stewart.
Come on be respectable...you didn't win 92 games to lay an egg in the playoffs
Monday, October 5, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Monday, September 21, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
Monday, August 31, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Monday, July 27, 2009
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Monday, July 6, 2009
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Monday, June 15, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
"The new Yankee Stadium is a lot of things that the New York Yankees expected when they planned it. No one fathomed it would be the park that could break Coors Field’s stranglehold on the single-season home run record of 303 in 1999. More than a quarter the way through the season, the 87 home runs in 23 games at new Yankee Stadium have set a pace that extrapolates to 306."
1. 2005 Astros (19-32 start; 89-73 final record).
2. 2007 Cubs (22-29; 85-77).
3. 2007 Yankees (22-29; 94-68).
This is very bad news for the Indians, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates, Astros, Diamondbacks and Rockies. One word of advice: sell. Better to make players available now, especially for players on the last year of deals. A four-month rental has more value than a two-month rental."