Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 14 or We're going to the Series

The Week That Was
A 5-2 week against the Nats and Braves. The Roxs currently stand at 47-41. Nine games back from division leading Los Angeles in third place and two games behind the Giants in the Wild Card. Currently 23-19 at home and 24-22 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 442-405 (expected wins is 48 versus historical wins at 41). On pace for 87 wins with 814 runs scored and 746 runs against.

Second time in the Rox's history that they have a winning record at the All Star break. A team that was left for dead (hey I admit I wasn't happy about it!) has come back with a vengeance. Respectability is once again mentioned with our Rox. The big question is what does the next 74 games hold? Can we continue playing well through July? Post All Star has been an achilles heel over the years with the July swoon causing the people of Colorado to look to the Broncos. The rest of July should give an indication if the Rox will stick around especially leading off with a four game series in San Diego and then later with a four game series against the Mets in late July. The three game home stint with the Giants could put us on top of the Wild Card standings. August (6 games with Giants and three with LA) and September (three with Giants) have always been good months for the Rox. And then lets not forget that we close out the year at Dodger Stadium with a three game series. So you think Lightning can strike twice in three years? Can you imagine strolling into Chavez Ravine on Oct 2 tied for first place? If you think I am crazy consider this...

World Series Part Deux - The Rematch
The title above indeed says I am drinking the Kool Aid but why not? The team has been playing well. Thirty-nine of the 74 games remaining are at home where the team has traditionally played 0.574 (that is 21 wins) and consider they are playing 0.522 on the road this year (another 18 wins) that gives them 86 wins.

Cool Standings gives the Rox a calculated win total of 87.6 and about a 36% chance to make the playoffs. Now granted the Dodgers have a calculated win total of 101 games. The real question over the last half of the season is whether the Dodgers are really that good (?), the Rox that good (?), who has been the streakier team, and whether we can expect the Dodgers to fall back to earth. Realistically I don't think the Dodgers are going to play 31 - 43 down the stretch but if the Rox can continue playing 0.690 baseball under Tracy that gives them another 51 wins and suddenly that Dodger lead doesn't feel so safe. Think Tracy wouldn't like sticking it to the Dodgers....

So the Dodgers have the best record in baseball...but what about the Beane Count? Yup those are our Rox sitting in behind the Sox. The Dodgers fall to 9th so who is the paper tiger now? Of course Arizona sits 8th and they stink so take all of this with a grain of salt ;-). What I think this shows is that perhaps the Dodgers have been lucky? This doesn't show in there runs scored/runs against but they have had a super bullpen so far this year. A 24 - 10 record with 302 innings pitched compared to our own bullpen 10 - 12 record with 245 innings pitched! Anything jump out at you? At this rate our "shaky (?)" bullpen will have pitched 80 innings less than LA...think this might mean something come October...how many 2 inning relief appearances can Broxton throw?

What else are the Rox doing better than anyone else? How about baserunning....not a very sexy stat but it shows that maybe Hurdle's spring antics are finally coming to fruition. Taking the extra base, being aggressive on the basepaths, and making things happen can only help a team! Oh yeah and according to the Wall Street Journal, de la Rosa's slider is a bitch to hit...

And finally there has been plenty of newspaper talk here in Denver about obtaining the services of a crafty 32 year old righty from Toronto. If the Rox ownership had any (base)balls this is an absolute no brainer. You give the farm away to get this guy. Bring in the hometown hero to slay your opponents. I understand you build from within but this is why you have a potent farm system...to make a trade for a superstar to get you over the hump. What was the biggest weakness in 2007 World Series against the Red Sox? Hmmm Game 1 starter...Jeff Francis versus Josh Beckett. Who you goin to take? 2009 World Series Part Deux...Doc Halladay versus Josh Beckett Game 1 starting in Boston. Think the Rox might have a better chance of stealing a game in Boston with that caliber of starter? PLEASE make it happen, this is aligning of the planets, this is the time to make something happen, put our team on the front page, make LA feel small, make the Giants quake, give our team a real chance. Prospects are a gamble...the team on the field now is making it happen...go the distance...get Halladay!

There my rant is done...Rox wins Series in 6!

No comments: