Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Got a Dollar?

Ever wonder who gets paid what for our Rox? The graph below breaks it down and proportions everything to one dollar...
Yup Helton accounts for 21% of the payroll.  Hope his back stays healthy because we need that kind of coin playing everyday.  Talking injuries we currently have 7% of the payroll sidelined in Francis, Buchholz, and Speier ($5.5 million!).  Also nothing like paying your number 3 starter the second highest salary on the team!

Monday, April 27, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 3

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the D-backs and Dodgers. The Roxs currently stand at 6-11. Six games back from division leading Los Angeles in fifth place. Currently 2-4 at home and 4-7 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 92-86 (expected wins is 8 versus historical wins at 8). On pace for 57 wins with 820 runs scored and 877 runs against.

In previous season's I tracked WPA by players by week. This year I decided to follow by position (i.e. starting pitcher, relief pitchers, infielders, and outfielders). In this way we can see who were the dogs and who were the monsters for the week. As amazing as it seems the starters last week actually didn't do to bad (thanks to Marquis). For a 2-4 week the WPA was pretty even.

Where is the Cookie Monster
The biggest question for the Rox this April has been Aaron Cook. What is the cause of the dismal outings. Four starts with no real bright spots. They say it is release point. Well I found this site that gives a a nice summary of pitch fx data for pitchers. Anyway I picked a game from July 1, 2008 when Cook pitched 9 innings versus his last start. Well there appears to be a difference but does that cause his effectiveness to head south?

Below is a graph outlining his 2008 and 2009 starts. Really the only apparent difference is that his flyballs are up which probably leads to the homeruns against him. I am not an expert but with the issues Francis had last year lets hope that it is just a release point issue and not an injury...

Monday, April 13, 2009

Week in Review

Opening week for 2009.  A 3-3 week against the D-backs and Phillies. The Roxs currently stand at 3-3. Game and half games back from division leading Padres in second place. Currently 1-2 at home and 2-1 on the road, the Roxs have outscored its opponents 39-29 (expected wins is 4 versus historical wins at 3). On pace for 81 wins with 1053 runs scored and 783 runs against.

Well a tale of two teams this week.  Dr Jekyll on the road and Mr. Hyde at home.  Bullpen looked fabulous in Arizona then got home and couldn't buy a strike or a key out.  Kind of frustrating because the 3 wins were quality wins and the loses really looked bad.  My guess is that it is going to be one of those years.  Some decent stretches bookended by awful games.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Opening a Coors...

Errrr or just opening day at Coors Field!  Nosebleed seats but the sun was warm and the field still looked green, and the beer still refreshing.  Nice day for the hometown team.  That is 30 runs in 4 games and on pace to score 891 runs!  I am going out on a limb to say that if this keeps up we might be hosting another World Series this October.  I won't get too excited but this outburst is happening without Atkins or Iannetta swinging particularly well right now.  The pitching has been lights out.  It is only April but this is the kind of opening the Rox need to carry them into something good.  Lot easier to play out front then have to chase all summer.  The rains are supposed to come in this weekend so we shall see.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Rox Talk - Opening Day

New season, fresh slate. Watched the team play in Las Vegas on Saturday. Solid effort although I think Smith got a fat pitch to end it as I bet neither team wanted to go into extra innings. Marquis looked good but a bit wobbly. Morillo looked a bit shaky and Fowler didn't do much. Can't wait for opening day! Believe the Rox are either 7-9 or 9-7 in opening day match ups. Vegas odds for over/under for the Rox was at 76.5. I hedged my bet by taking the under (with hope they do much better!).