Monday, April 27, 2009

Rox Talk - Week 3

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the D-backs and Dodgers. The Roxs currently stand at 6-11. Six games back from division leading Los Angeles in fifth place. Currently 2-4 at home and 4-7 on the road, the Roxs have been outscored by its opponents 92-86 (expected wins is 8 versus historical wins at 8). On pace for 57 wins with 820 runs scored and 877 runs against.

In previous season's I tracked WPA by players by week. This year I decided to follow by position (i.e. starting pitcher, relief pitchers, infielders, and outfielders). In this way we can see who were the dogs and who were the monsters for the week. As amazing as it seems the starters last week actually didn't do to bad (thanks to Marquis). For a 2-4 week the WPA was pretty even.

Where is the Cookie Monster
The biggest question for the Rox this April has been Aaron Cook. What is the cause of the dismal outings. Four starts with no real bright spots. They say it is release point. Well I found this site that gives a a nice summary of pitch fx data for pitchers. Anyway I picked a game from July 1, 2008 when Cook pitched 9 innings versus his last start. Well there appears to be a difference but does that cause his effectiveness to head south?

Below is a graph outlining his 2008 and 2009 starts. Really the only apparent difference is that his flyballs are up which probably leads to the homeruns against him. I am not an expert but with the issues Francis had last year lets hope that it is just a release point issue and not an injury...

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