Monday, January 26, 2009

Rox Talk - Hall of Fame?

Is Todd Helton a Hall of Famer?

The Hall of Fame is a fickle organization. I came across this article by Joe Posnanski and started thinking of the probability of our only legitimate Hall of Famer, Todd Helton. So what do we have:

1) Finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting
2) Finished as high as 5th in MVP voting
3) Has played in 5 All Star games
4) Played in a World Series
5) Three gold gloves

Statistically speaking he has

1) 1,957 hits
2) 310 Home Runs
3) .328 career batting average
4) 1.002 OPS, one of only 5 players to have a career OPS of greater than 1.000

For Joe's article he claims that longevity certainly plays a point in getting into the hall. His theory below:

5,000 plate appearances: 653 players, 122 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 18.6%
7,000 plate appearances: 284 players, 98 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 35%.
7,500 plate appearances: 225 players, 87 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 39%
8,000 plate appearances: 183 players, 83 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 45%
8,500 plate appearances: 125 players, 67 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 54%
9,000 plate appearances: 102 players, 64 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 63%
9,500 plate appearances: 78 players, 55 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 71%
10,000 plate appearances: 55 players, 43 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 78%
10,500 plate appearances: 37 players, 31 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 84%
11,000 plate appearances: 26 players, 23 Hall of Fames, Hall of Fame chances: 88%

Well Helton has 5,962 plate appearances so based on above he has about 25% chance of getting in. What about 3,000 hits (and another 2 - 3,000 plate appearances)? Well then he his about 2/3 of the way. Based on his history he has average about 150 hits a year so he needs about another 6-7 years to get to 3,000. At 35 I don't think Helton has another 6 - 7 years in him but lets say he does. Todd's HR hitting days are about over...he managed 7 last year...and I expect him to finish just shy of 400. In the old days 500 homers were a shoo in but my guess is that 600 will become the new number and Todd will never hit these numbers. In the end I think Todd will have a fantastic career, will have his number retired as a Rockie, but will ultimately fall short of the Hall of Fame.

1 comment:

The Casual Observer said...

Does longevity play a part in getting into the hall ... or does talent play a part in longevity? Probably a bit of both - but it is going to be extremely hard for a mediocre player to get 10K plate appearances (because when the start to decline, there will be better options) ... but they might be able to get 5K.