Monday, April 5, 2010

Rox Talk - Let the Games Begin

Enough Talk - Play Ball

Why I Love Baseball - Great article at Hardball Times. Kind of explains to those non baseball lovers why we love this game.

Sports Illustrated Picks for 2010 - Some great articles in the 2010 SI baseball preview issue. Nice piece on Doc Halliday. Hope he gets the ball when he visits Coors this year.

ESPN the Magazine also had some good preview stuff although the SI issue projections were better than ESPN ;-). Although SI was gut, ESPN was more stat driven on expectations. Have to take exception to the use of ZiPS. See the data below obtained from fangraphs. It lists the Rox starters and the projections. The four projections project a run score range of 774 (ZiPS) - 823 (Marcel). Runs allowed ranged from 672 (James) - 750 (ZiPS). Therefore any 100 game simulations would suggest that the Rox will be subpar. Although even with these values the simulations gave the Rox the Division title 24% of the time.

Taking the runs score/runs against (and using adjusted runs based on season AB totals) I get win totals of 94, 88, 90, and 83. Now ZiPS gives us 83 wins (note the Vegas line is 84.5) so go figure. Average gives us 89 wins which I like. Will that be enough? I think so.

Bottom line - Rox just need to be patient, not press due to these high expectations, and try and get a decent April start. At this stage Rox need to put Street and Francis injuries behind them. If they come back fine but the team should not use them as excuses if things get rough...

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