Monday, May 17, 2010

Rox Talk - Week 6

The Week That Was
A 4-2 week against the Phillies and Nationals. The Rox currently stand at 19-18. Three games back from division leading San Diego in fourth place. Currently 11-7 at home and 8-11 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 179-152 (expected wins is 21 versus historical wins at 17). On pace for 83 wins with 784 runs scored and 666 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.18 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Sometimes as fans we probably should be more realistic. Are the Rox where we want them? Perhaps when we think a team is ready to win the Division we tend to think the team should lead the race from Game 1. Not quite there after Week 6. But perhaps the glass isn't half empty...look above and Rox in previous years had 16, 15, and 15 wins. This year we have 19. Something to think about. Only 3 out of the top spot. A good start by Francis, the bullpen settling into their roles, and an offense that really isn't clicking. Throw in a wacky weather week with three rain outs, two potential doubleheaders, and binoculargate I guess we should be positive about the position our Rox find themselves in. I mean heck if we were leading the division we'd probably be whining that our team doesn't have a big enough lead. I'd rather come from behind then have the pressure of leading at the top.

Second Inning
A 162 game schedule can easily be broken into "9 innings" of 18 games a piece. Over the years I have tracked monthly averages and I am always amazed how similar the averages are. So this year instead of months I am simply tracking 18 game stretches to see if anything changes. The spreadsheet below shows the first and second inning.

Another 9 - 9 inning. Little more realistic record. Pitching staff allowed 15 more runs. Interesting to see we actually scored more runs on the road against our opponents especially considering the road trip was from San Fran, San Diego, and LA. Once again another glaring black eye for our bullpen which went 2 - 4. Jimenez continues to lead the way. Interesting to see Tulo jump up there with WAR. Wonder how much defense plays into that?

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