Monday, August 23, 2010

Rox Talk - Week 20

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the Dodgers and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 63-60. Eleven games back from division leading San Diego in third place and seven games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 38-20 at home and 25-40 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 566-534 (expected wins is 65 versus historical wins at 58). On pace for 83 wins with 745 runs scored and 703 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.06 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).
Big changes afoot in the Rocky Mountains. Amazing to think that on July 11, the Rox found themselves two game out of first place in the West. Had they won that day they could have entered the All Star break tied for first. Unfortunately the Rox have suffered through a disappointing 14 - 21 stretch that has taken them from two out to eleven out and basically out of the playoffs. While the road trip from hell (gee heard that before) ended the hopes of the division title, there was still hope that Rox could squeak into the playoffs. Unfortunately I think with the latest trip and two losses to the basement dwellers D-Backs, I think at this point the Rox need to look to the future.

Interesting to wonder if the Rox age finally caught up with them? Hawpe, Helton, Giambi, Olivo, Barmes, and even Spilly are all over 30. It is rare that a player that can still tie em up and be consistent at this game when they hit that magic number of 30. I imagine the daily grind, the aches and pains can lead to performance issues as a player ages.

As a fan I am hugely disappointed by the 2010 season but perhaps this downturn could lead the way to a better 2011. Imagine had the Rox won the division, what would the management done? Probably took Hawpe's option, made an offer to Olivo, and took on Barmes for a few more years. With the current situation as it is, I think the outcome could be beneficial. This downturn allows management to justify ridding the team of older talent and heavy contracts. In 2011 young talent will get a shot and Rox won't have to take on any longer term contracts. A younger team could lead to a great 2011 (and 2009 and 2007, see a pattern?).

In the end moving on is always tough. Hate to see players move on when the team isn't performing because the assumption was that the player's moving on were the reason for the team's distress. But the fact remains that very few player's can be productive and so with the downturn we can effectively jettison these older player's without the need to add to payroll. Cruel but a small market's way of life. Rox can't afford to waste money. Graph below shows our aging veterans and their wOBA against the lead average. Would you sign any of these players long term?

75 Percent Done
With 120 games in the books that means the Rox are 75 percent of the way through the 2010 campaign. Graph below shows projections at the 3/4 mark compared to the other previous quarters. The solid graph is the average projections at the start of the season.

CarGo still having a monster year scoring a whole bunch of runs. Everyone else but Olivo is under expectations. Hawpe and Iannetta (granted they haven't played a lot of games) the Rox just aren't scoring runs. They are on pace to score 60 - 70 runs below expectations!

On the other hand the pitching has been pretty decent.

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