Monday, September 6, 2010

Rox Talk - Week 22

The Week That Was
A 4-3 week against the Giants, Phillies, and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 72-64. Four and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and five and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 43-22 at home and 28-43 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 635-591 (expected wins is 72 versus historical wins at 64). On pace for 86 wins with 756 runs scored and 704 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).
A 4-3 week at this point would seem to equate to doom but three of those wins were against the division leading Padres and so only a week ago the Rox were eight out of the division title but now find themselves within striking distance especially with three more against both the Giants and Padres.

Rox are a resilient team. With the O's willing this team to the finish line. Tulo and CarGo have been monsters these last two weeks. Question is what can we do with 26 games left to play. Fortunately 16 of these are at home and only 10 left on the road (LA, Arizona, and St Louis). That final series in St Louis could be interesting especially if the team can make up some ground against the Reds. Of course it would be awfully nice to clinch a playoff berth in St Louis too since last year the Cards clinched at Coors.

What the Rest of World is Saying...

For the record, from '95 - 01, Rox won 231 of 558 games on the road versus 314 at home. From '03 - 09, Rox won 225 of 567 on the road versus 316 at home. Further analysis of the run scoring environment from '95 - 01, Rox scored 2319 runs and allowed 2598 (expected wins in 250) on the road versus 3973 runs scored and 3743 runs allowed (expected wins is 294) at home. From '03 - 09, Rox scored 2377 runs and allowed 2747 (expected wins is 246) on the road versus 3273 runs scored and 3037 runs allowed (expected wins is 303) at home. So the humidor has saved 1406 additional runs...pitchers thank you for that, although '95-01 was the height of the steroid era so who is to say the humidor has done anything?

Also of note is that the visitor's split of runs allowed at home versus at Coors from '95-01 averaged 164 difference. So this means our pitchers allowed 164 more runs at Coors then they did away from Coors. Since '03, this average has dropped to 41. Again one has to wonder is this because of the humidor or Rox understanding what type of pitcher succeeds at altitude? Unfortunately if you think having groundball pitchers matter the average GB/FB ratio for both periods of time comes out to be 0.85! So much for that theory...Perhaps it is just home grown talent understanding the mental challenges of pitching at altitude, too bad the offense can't figure out how to hit on the road

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