Monday, September 13, 2010

Rox Talk - Week 23

The Week That Was
A 7-0 week against the Reds and D-Back. The Rox currently stand at 79-64. One and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and two and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 50-22 at home and 29-42 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 683-613 (expected wins is 79 versus historical wins at 68). On pace for 89 wins with 774 runs scored and 694 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

I'm speechless or maybe you should call it writer's block? Can this team do it again in September? I'll be honest, I wrote them off after they lost two of three in Arizona about 3 weeks ago. San Diego was on cruise control (we were 11 games back at that point) and there were five teams ahead of the Rox. Since then the Padres and Cardinals have tanked, the Braves have struggled and fallen into the Wild Card, and while the Giants have played decent ball, our Rox don't seem too far away.

This week the pixie dust was flying. First U-Ball gets number 18, CarGo is talked about as a potential triple crown winner, Tulo's bat went crazy, Giambi's walkoff, and then the wackiest play you ever saw and that was a come from behind steal of home to seal the victory (or should I stay steal the victory?). Either way it has to be one of the greatest weeks in Rox history at least for defining heroes.

Now the question is what now? Rox have 19 games left (9 at home, 10 away) with Padres coming in this week. Ideally Rox sweep the Padres and dump them into 3rd place. We then go on the road to LA and Arizona, then back home against SF and LA with a final trip to St Louis. Perfect scenario would be for the Rox to take the Division lead after SF passes through Denver and then we pummel the Dodgers and then face St Louis and wave the Division title in Holliday's face! That would mark a great season. We then get Reds/Braves and then get Philadelphia in a seven game series for once. Although Phillies have a World Championship and have been to two World Series, remember the Rox put them in their place in 2007. It would be a nice bookend to end their run and get to the Series again, with home field advantage! Remember U-ball started the All Star game, it would be nice to see him start Game 1 of the World Series at Coors! Dream baby!

The Crazy Week That Was
First off Inside the Rockies saved me the time and effort and highlighted every Rox steal of home. Nelson's was the 15th and for the most part it was the first straight steal in Rox history although as Tracy Ringolsby explains EY Senior had one too but it was because a double steal didn't work. It would seem that the historian's had trouble discovering how rare a feat a straight steal of home by a rookie was. Either way Nelson gets his first MLB stolen base the hard way. I find it hard to believe, looking at the list, that Todd Helton has two swipes of home! Also interesting to see that 11/15 steals of home were in fact done at Home!

Last week after CarGo's insane early week performance (he pulled within 3 homers of the being the Triple Crown leader), the National news media jumped on the band wagon. Of course the primary moan against CarGo was his home and away splits. History would show that Rox hitters have always had a tough time proving that they should exist in any offensive discussion about a great season. A triple crown and possible MVP discussion would certainly bring the Coors Field Effect back into play. If somehow the Rox do make the playoffs I can't fathom that CarGo wouldn't be a front runner. Anyway the discussion last week was home and away splits and I thought maybe we should look at win and loss splits among the MVP leaders. See data below:

The NL numbers were determined taking win/loss splits of the NL up to this point in the year and then calculating the numbers for 130 games played (which was about the average number of games the three leaders had up to this point). After getting the data I am not for sure what I was really looking for. I think originally I was thinking that to be called a MVP and as part of being the most valuable player that somehow even when the team lost that said player would still put up huge numbers. So basically I was looking to see who had the best numbers when their team lost. As the numbers show all three players don't have very good numbers when their team loses. So it kind of makes my point moot in that when they play like MVPs their respective teams win. Big problem with CarGo was that he really didn't bat most of the year in a MVP spot (3rd of 4th in the order) and thus his numbers are somewhat different then the other two. It is pretty apparent that CarGo is a hacker. His dismal walk rate really affects his OBP but boy his slugging sure makes up for it. CarGo is pretty much a basher and probably be considered a Adam Dunn type batter (thank god he plays a better outfield!). In addition CarGo probably doesn't get much love for his speed and baserunning nor his outfield play. With 19 games to play he can certainly cement his position with a monster September!

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