Monday, January 17, 2011

Rox Talk - Projections

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report on February 14, 2011 (that is only 28 days!), the statistical projections have started to appear. Fangraphs usually include these predictions on their player pages. Last year I analyzed James, Marcels, ZiPs, Chone, as well as the Fans. I then averaged the Big Four (excluded the Fans) and came up with an average runs scored or runs allowed for the expected Rox lineup.

In addition I tracked each quarter of the season to determine how these projections held true. The graph below is for the hitters. The white bar is the average projection, the red line is the first 40 games final projection, followed by the blue line which indicates projection through 81 games, followed by the green line indicating projections through 120 games, and then finally the black bar which is the final season total for that hitter. The graph below is the same setup but for pitchers.

Points of Interest:
- CarGo had a massive season and just kept going. His preseason projection had him scoring a measly 68 run
- Dex had a slow down in the second quarter due to his demotion to the Minors. He came back with a vengeance
- Rox can't afford to have another sub par year from their first baseman
- Please Tulo stay uninjured...what a season it could have been!
- Hawpe got injured and was never the same...eventually traded. Rox missed those runs
- Smith and Stewart need to excel, they certainly underperformed in 2010
- Iannetta needs to get out of the doghouse and make some noise, what is it with Rox catchers in waiting...they never breakout
- Thank god for Olivo
- Barmes and Spilly...meh
- Mora and Giambi show that projections for bench guys and off day players just don't work.
- Cook started slow, as usual, and sort of found his way...I hate seeing players age
- U-Ball nothing to say but man he was awesome especially early on
- Francis was hurt out of Spring Training
- De la Rosa hurt early in the season
- Hammel has shown such brilliance followed by crap...break out year in 2011 would be welcomed
- Boy they can project relievers of course the small sample size probably is the reason

Overall hard to put much weight in projections...sure it might make you sleep better in March but come October it really doesn't mean much!

No comments: