Monday, March 14, 2011

Rox Talk - Relief Game Score Part II

Relief Game Score - Part II
In Part I of my treatise on a relievers game score, I noticed some possible modifications that could then be integrated with the starters game score to produce a total game score for the pitching staff of that game. The basis of the starters game score is to represent an average start to be around 50 points. Any exceptional start would be in the 80s and an extraordinary start would be in the 90s.

Basing a relief game score on the same 50 point basis would suggest a similar trend. An average relief outting would score around 50 and go up from there. To extrapolate from this it would suggest that an average start and relief appearance would end up to be around 100 points. For instance in 2010, the average relief game score for the Rox was 58 and the average starter game score was 50. But what if we scaled the relief score, so that instead of an average effort of 108 points, you would get around 75 points when you add the relief game score to the starters game score (you know a nice C effort?). So instead of starting the relief game score calculation with 50 points let's start with 15 points. Now the average relief game score for the Rox is 24 for the 2010 season and to go along with the average starter game score of 50 we now have a total game average of 74 points for 162 games.

How does this hold up in the wins and losses? Well the average total game score in wins is 85 and in losses it is 63. Not too shabby. Table below shows the top to bottom total game scores for the 2010 season.

Top Scores:
Game 82: 15 inning 4-3 win over the Giants (Hammel goes 7 innings)
Game 93: 10-0 win over Florida (Francis goes 7 inning, bullpen strikes out 5)
Game 4: 7-0 win over San Diego (de la Rosa goes 7 innings, bullpen strikes out 3)
Game 52: 11 inning 2-1 win over the Giants (Hammel goes 6 2/3, bullpen strikes out 6 and no hits)
Game 113: 6-2 win over Mets (Francis goes 6, bullpen strikes out 6 and no hits)

Worst Score:
Game 133: 11-12 loss to Phillies (bullpen gives up 9 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings)

Game Scores isn't a real statistical tool. It was mostly just a back of the envelope calculation to rate a starting pitcher's effort and to especially look beyond the "quality start". In much the same way the relief game score is just taking some benchmarks that you'd like to see out of your relief corp and assigning some point values. Manipulating these numbers to get a realistic number so that they can be favorably compared. Based on one season of input, the numbers would seem to indicate that you can assign a value to the relief effort much like the starters. While you can similarly rank the relief corp on a similar point scale it would seem to be more of a value to be able to take both the relief and starters score and produce a total game score and have this be on a 0 - 100 point scale.

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