Monday, September 10, 2012

Rox Talk - Week 23

Week 23
A 1-6 week against the Braves and Phillies. The Rox currently stand at 56-83 (second half record at 23-31). Twenty-two games behind the Giants for the division lead in last place. Currently 30-41 at home and 26-42 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 750-654 (expected wins is 61 versus historical wins at 66). On pace for 65 wins with 762 runs scored and 874 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs Scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.87 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox ran into a buzz saw this past week.  Up until this point they had been playing fairly well and the real rub on this past week is that they lost two very winnable games.  To see some pitching success but then not take advantage is a real bummer.  Then of course Rox run into Philly with the Phillies finally playing up to their standard.

In addition to the losing of winnable games something else that that this year's record suggests is that Rox have not only had historically bad pitching and field but also have had some bad luck.  Their expected win percentage is closer to 61 games.  Now I'm not suggesting that if the Rox were sitting at 61-78 this season would be any better but perhaps it is something to lean on for next year.

Four Man Rotation
With Chacin's return to the rotation, the experiment is effectively over.  Since his return all pitchers have returned to their normal days of rest although the 75 pitch limit still appears to be in effect and the bullpen is still taking over once the opponent's line up goes through the third time.  My guess is that this will be the legacy of the experiment and that is giving pitchers fewer pitchers and the advent of a new bullpen piece, the piggyback.  Hopefully a better name is found but continues the obvious movement away from 9 inning starter and the further specialization of the bullpen.  Below is the data, not for sure if anything really jumps out.  I was hoping something would be seen but realistically I just don't think the data set is large enough to matter.  The first data points is the whole staff not just starter's.  Further down is starter's only.

No comments: