Monday, June 13, 2011

Rox Talk- Week 11

The Week That Was
A 4-3 week against the Padres and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 31-34. Five and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 15-17 at home and 16-17 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 286-280 (expected wins is 33 versus historical wins at 30). On pace for 77 wins with 713 runs scored and 698 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.02 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox are 65 games into the season and sitting three games under 0.500.  Team really hasn't shown any consistency in the last 40 Games.  At the end of Game 25, Rox stood 17-8 with a 4.5 game lead and since then 14 - 26 and are 5.5 back.  What the heck happened? 

Looking at the numbers not all that much!  Frustrating thing about baseball is the numbers don't tell the whole story especially at the macro level.  As much as sabermatricians would like to put everything into a nice box with a label and say that these outcomes makes perfect sense I don't think it is that easy.  Just as they can't find that "clutch" numerical value, I don't think such a turn around the Rox have seen can be valued.  In the end we are dealing with humans, emotions, and like it or not that can't be mathematically evaluated.

Spreadsheet above shows the projected totals (average x 162) for the season if team kept its pace during Games 1-25 or from Games 26-65.  I find looking at the values over a 162 game period is easier to see differences then just averages during these spans of games.  What do we see?

Mixed signals of course.  The team has a whole has been hitting better but that hasn't translated in getting on base more which is partly due to the fact that while the team has gotten more hits, the number of walks has crashed.  The other big number that stands out is the increase number of double plays the team has hit into which leads to less opportunities to drive men in which reduces scoring opportunities.  Also throw in a lack of stolen bases and this really leads to an offense that is seemingly getting on track but really isn't.  I think the story the papers would suggest is that the bats are to blame but based on the numbers the offense has been fairly consistent if not improved in the last 40 games.

I think the real number to look at above is the "On Base" stat.  Nothing real scientific about it, it is just hits+walks+HBP+ROE.  The offense has been pretty consistent but look at our would suggest the pitchers have allowed a whole lot more base runners in the last 40 games.  While that doesn't necessary mean more runs, the fact that more runners are getting on base can lead to more runs.  So is our pitching really to blame?

In the end who knows why the Rox are playing like they are.  The conclusion that I come to would suggest this team isn't as good as the pundits suggested.  Rox can't just wait for that 10-15 game win streak to get the going.  Good teams win series and right now the Rox aren't doing that.

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