Monday, June 4, 2012

Rox Talk - Week 9

The Week That Was
A 6-1 week against the Astros and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 23-30.  Nine and half games behind the Dodgers for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 15-15 at home and 8-15 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 290-281 (expected wins is 26 versus historical wins at 24). On pace for 70 wins with 859 runs scored and 886 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs Scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox have scored their runs in bunches this year.  Because of this, their runs scored versus runs against would suggest they should have about 26 wins.  Therefore through 2 months of the season, Rox theoretically could be sitting with a record of 26-27 which sounds a whole lot better than 23-30.  If Rox were in fact flirting with .500 what would then be the current thought on this team?  In the real world, because of the record and the dismal starting pitching, a clear finger has been pointed to both the management that put together this rotation and those on the mound.  If Rox could have had a couple of breaks and were in fact even then would we consider these starters as serviceable?  I ask these questions because regardless of record we have four more months of this rotation to look forward to and to be realistic Rox need to lay the groundwork for 2013.  If this year was simply a "bridge" year to next year then the importance of the next 4 months can't be understated.

Last year's collapse in September really was just a preview of what to expect this year?  If 2012 is a preview of 2013 then what do Rox need to do this year?

1)  Decide the fate of third base.  If Arenado is going to be next year's starter than he needs to start learning at the next level.  Not a September call up but a June/July call up so he can see true pitching.

2)  If Arenado is the future at third then is Pacheco the future at first?  I realize this is sacrilegious but Helton is not an everyday first baseman anymore.  Major league teams should get huge production from their first baseman (Pujols and Fielder anyone?).  While Pacheco isn't going to have Pujols numbers his production would be better than Helton.

3) Trade Giambi to a NL contender and let him have one last shot.  Start transitioning Helton into the Giambi role.

4) Trade Guthrie and Colvin.  Maybe try and get an up and coming first baseman.  Start thinking 2014.

5) Test the waters on Betancourt.  While Brothers has faltered and we have no real closer candidate I think Rox should trade their closer especially this year when so many teams have loss their number one shut down guy.

6) Anyone who is ready to pitch in the majors should be doing it now.  Pomeranz should be working it out against major league hitters.  No questions next Spring should exist on who will be the starting five in 2013.

7) Owner, management, and coaching staff need to address the media and either move forward with what is in place or make changes now so that a new team can evaluate what is on the field and make the necessary adjustments so that all is on the same page on Day 1, 2013.

8) Look beyond the humidor to see what can be done to fix Coors.  Disparity between home and away is so great that Rox should consider everything and anything.

9) Make 2013 a make or break year.  Put all the chips in and gun for a Championship.  If it doesn't happen start a fire sale.  Make it clear to the team that if it can't play with expectations then it won't be playing together.  Sell everything of value and build for future years.  Maybe it is a major selling point that Rox have never had a 100 loss season but wins in the 70s year in and year out don't bring confidence to the Fan base. If the model is to build through the draft then Rox need to make a definite no holds bar run every few years.  It either works or doesn't and if doesn't blow up the team and start over.  Paying guys in their 30s might be nice for the fan base but doesn't help to win.

10) Bottom line:  Expectations and accountability.

Where Will it End?
Below shows projected wins through games played.  Rox are going in the right direction.  Let's hope we keep trending higher!

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