Monday, April 18, 2011

Rox Talk - Week 3

The Week That Was
A 6-1 week against the Mets and Cubs. The Rox currently stand at 12-3. Four game lead in the division. Currently 5-2 at home and 7-1 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 85-59 (expected wins is 10 versus historical wins at 7). On pace for 130 wins with 918 runs scored and 637 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.44 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Wow what a start!  Team is certainly clicking on all cyclinders.  The offense, starting pitching, and bullpen have all played a part in making this the best start in franchise history.  Now I don't think this team is that good.  They have had some luck but good teams do make their own breaks but the parts are their for this team to keep it going over the long haul. 

Offensive good things:  Herrera, Tulo, Helton, Smith, and Iannetta.  OK but not great:  Lopez, CarGo, and Fowler.  Red Flags:  Wiggington and Stewart.  At this rate I think Stewart will get sent down and third will go to Lopez and Wiggington especially with Herrera fast start.  But of the three 3rd basemen someone has to click...I hope.

Starting pitching good things:  Chacin, Reynolds, Rogers.  OK but not great:  U-Ball and de la Rosa.  Red Flags:  Hammel.  Hammel has looked awful this April and just looks uncomfortable.  Overall the starters have done what is expected...keep the team in the some innings...and leave it to the bullpen.

Bullpen good things:  Belisle, Betancourt, Linstrom, and Street (sort of although I don't think he ever likes a Save unless he loads the bases).  OK but not great:  Reynolds and Morales.  Red Flags:  Paulino.  Paulino's transition is not going so well...does not come in and close the door...something to work on.

Home Runs, Home Runs
Denver Post had an interesting little tidbit about how the Rox are hitting more home runs this year with runner's on base compared to last year.  Obviously making such a statement 15 games into the year is like saying the Rox are on pace (and believing) they will win 130 games this year.  Chart below shows the percentage of HR hit with runners on versus the total for that season (solid red line is winning percentage for that year).  So for instance in 2010, Rox hit 173 dingers and of those 78 had ducks on the pond and 95 were solo shots.  The average over the 18 years was about 44% so yeah so far in 2011 of the 18 homers hit, 10 have been with runners on.  Do I expect this to continue?  Probably not nor do I believe this is the reason the Rox are 12-3 but it is a nice stat bit.
In doing this study I also looked at two out homers.  To me a two out homer is a gotta be demoralizing to the other team.  Getting so close to that final out and then giving it up...again red line is winning percentage.

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