Monday, May 30, 2011

Rox Talk - Week 9

The Week That Was
A 2-5 week against the D-Backs and Cardinals. The Rox currently stand at 25-27. Three and half games behind the D-Backs(!) for the division lead. Currently 13-15 at home and 12-12 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 238-221 (expected wins is 28 versus historical wins at 24). On pace for 78 wins with 741 runs scored and 689 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.08 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).  Amazing what some high scoring blowouts can do to your run differential and what a bunch of one run losses can do to your record!

Another miserable homestand.  Also time to say goodbye to Paulino (finally) and Lopez (gee we hardly knew you).  Changes abound especially with de la Rosa's injury.  Busy week with the EY Jr and Chris Nelson getting a call back up to the Big City and Big Leagues.  And now the Rox go on a 16 trip through the NL West with 9 on the road in LA, San Fran, and San Diego (sounds like a nice vacation!) followed by LA and Padres coming to town.  Hate to say it this early in the season, but I think this span of games decides the season.  Win less than 7 games and the Rox will bury themselves in the Division.  Sure there will still be 94 games left but after these 16 games through the division, the Rox get Detroit (currently 26-26), Cleveland (31-19), and then the Yankees (28-23).  Not exactly an easy Interleague schedule!

Perhaps the offense will wake up but with the injury to de la Rosa the pitching shuffle begins.  Can Nicasio stick around?  Will U-Ball find his slot?  Can Cook save the day?  The young Chacin start to scuffle?  Starting pitching problems can lead to overused bullpen...what then?

In the end a lot can happen.  Remember 2009 when our Rox were 20-32 and then went on a 17-1 tear?  Rox can get hot and put May behind them for good.  They certainly have the talent but when will it all come together?

Links, Links, and Links
Recreational sabermetrics?  Well if you think reading scholarly papers is recreational...
- Great article on hitting, glad he left the division.
- Yup with Wilson Valdez getting some love for his win we are reminded of Brent Mayne's win
- When is it too late to have hope?
- And this visually shows U-Ball's early season troubles...

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