Monday, April 30, 2012

Rox Talk - Week 4

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the Pirates and Mets. The Rox currently stand at 10-11.  Five and half games behind the Dodgers for the division lead in fourth place. Currently 6-6 at home and 4-5 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 107-110 (expected wins is 10 versus historical wins at 10). On pace for 77 wins with 825 runs scored and 849 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

I have an eerie feeling that 2012 is going to similar to the days of yesteryear when 10-9 games were the norm rather than the outlier.  Rox offense has been spectacularly good and ugly at the same time.  The three game series in Pittsburgh proved the ugly part and the three game series at home against the Mets showed the good.  And as all things go when you aren't hitting your pitchers stand out and when you offense is humming your pitching stinks.  Last week was polar opposites.  With LA coming in this week I cringe at the offensive possibilites.  I could see LA leaving this week having scored at least 30 runs.  With LA sitting at 16-6 and the Rox 5.5 games out we could basically bury ourselves in April.  Kind of frightening to think our team could be going through the motions the rest of the season.  Sure we will surge in late summer as always but with the mediocre division I don't see us getting a Wild Card.  I know it's early but pitching as been every bit as awful as we expected.

We have been spoiled looking at the Rox pitching from 2007 - 2010.  Those four years will go down as the greatest pitchers ever!  236 wins to only 210 loses.  Graph below shows starting pitcher winning percentage with each progressive four year cycle.  The smaller black dots show team winning percentage.  Not to be alarmist but our starter's are on pace for 31 wins and 54 loses or a 0.365 winning percentage!  On the bright side even our worse staffs managed to win 40% so shouldn't be too concerned with the rough April start but arms need to get going...

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